NM voters moving towards political parties in election year

The months leading up to the general election show an increasing number of voters in New Mexico aligning themselves with a political party in the state rather than registering as independents. Democrats account for roughly half of registered voters, according to data from the New Mexico Secretary of State’s office. The other half splits among […]

NM voters moving towards political parties in election year

The months leading up to the general election show an increasing number of voters in New Mexico aligning themselves with a political party in the state rather than registering as independents.

chart

Democrats account for roughly half of registered voters, according to data from the New Mexico Secretary of State’s office. The other half splits among Republicans, minor parties and those who decline to state an affiliation.

But since January the number of registered Democrats spiked by about five percentage points and the number of registered Republicans increased by roughly 4 percentage points. Minor parties also saw an increase in voter registration since the beginning of the year.

Only independents, who in the state’s terms “decline to state” an affiliation, saw their numbers go down in that short time.

It’s a contrast to recent longer-term trends that saw decline-to-state voters grow.

Sarah Silva, executive director of New Mexico Comunidades en Acción y de Fé (CAFé), a nonpartisan advocacy group, told NM Political Report that her group has seen much more engagement from voters this year than usual.

“More people are talking about the election much, much sooner,” Silva said.

CAFé works around the state advocating for higher wages for workers and immigration reform, but also helps register voters.

Silva said she can’t point to a nexus.

“This is the one year that people are choosing a party,” Silva said.

While the overall percentages for voter data have remained the same, the raw numbers are shifting towards a trend of affiliation.

In January, more than 550,000 were registered as Democrats compared to about 370,000 registered Republicans. Between then and July, registered Democrats grew by 30,000 voters  and registered Republicans grew by 20,000 voters.

People who registered as decline to state, however, dropped by roughly 3,000 voters, between that same time-frame.

Joe Kabourek, executive director of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, credits Democratic primary candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, combined with voter outreach, for the party’s increase.

He added that Donald Trump may have played a part in more voters turning to the Democratic party.

“Our candidates ran strong campaigns,” Kabourek said. “They were both the adults in the room.”

NM Political Report reached out to the state Republican Party for comment. We’ll update this post once we receive a response from them.

Lonna Atkeson, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico, cautioned that the numbers from January through July are only a small pieces of the bigger picture.

“We can see that we’ve gotten slightly more Democratic,” Atkeson said. “But no more than last election.”

Atkeson pointed out that the overall percentage of registered Democrats and Republicans across the state stayed relatively constant.

In April 2015, 47 percent of New Mexicans were registered as Democrats and 31 percent were Republicans. Roughly 19 were registered as decline to state while 3 percent of New Mexicans were registered under minor parties.

Voting data from this July, in contrast shows almost no change in those percentages except for decline to state voters dropping by one percent.

Hillary Clinton is favored in New Mexico over Donald Trump by nearly 10 points, according to a Public Policy Poll commissioned by NM Political Report—the only general election presidential poll conducted in New Mexico so far.

Regardless, Atkeson said it’s hard to see an accurate trend without looking at multiple years. She’s also hesitant to say New Mexico is leaning heavily Democratic.

“This is not a blue state,” Atkeson said. “You can’t look at a Republican governor and a Republican legislature and say this a blue state.”

We're ad free

That means that we rely on support from readers like you. Help us keep reporting on the most important New Mexico Stories by donating today.

Related

Emily’s List endorses seven candidates for Legislature

Emily’s List endorses seven candidates for Legislature

Emily’s List, a nonprofit that supports women candidates and reproductive rights, endorsed seven incumbents facing general election opponents in New Mexico legislative elections. All…
Equality New Mexico endorses 15 legislative candidates

Equality New Mexico endorses 15 legislative candidates

A New Mexico-based LGBTQ rights organization endorsed 15 candidates for state House and Senate seats for the 2024 elections.  Marshall Martinez, executive director of…
Lujan Grisham pocket vetoes two bills

Lujan Grisham pocket vetoes two bills

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham pocket vetoed two bills the legislature passed this legislative session: one changing the Cybersecurity Act and the other concerning law…
BLM announces final methane waste rule

BLM announces final methane waste rule

The federal Bureau of Land Management announced its final methane waste rule on Wednesday. These new regulations clamp down on the practice of venting…
What consumers, farmers should know about the flu impacting dairy cows

What consumers, farmers should know about the flu impacting dairy cows

Migrating birds appear to have caused a virus in dairy cattle that is causing reduced milk production. So far, the disease, which initially started…
Republicans seek to limit national monument designations

Republicans seek to limit national monument designations

Republican-backed legislation in the U.S. Congress would make it harder for the government to designate new national monuments. The proposed Congressional Oversight of the…
Amid new graduation requirements, what do high schoolers want to learn?

Amid new graduation requirements, what do high schoolers want to learn?

By Margaret O’Hara, The Santa Fe New Mexican The main things that bring Brayan Chavez to school every day: Seeing, talking to and engaging with…
Special ed teachers hope lawmakers OK pay raises, admin changes

Special ed teachers hope lawmakers OK pay raises, admin changes

By Margaret O’Hara, The Santa Fe New Mexican Brittany Behenna Griffith has a laundry list of adjectives to describe the ideal special education teacher:…
Lawmakers must find consensus on competing education spending plans

Lawmakers must find consensus on competing education spending plans

By Margaret O’Hara, The Santa Fe New Mexican A challenging task awaits New Mexico lawmakers in the next 30 days: Reconciling three very different…
Health workers fear it’s profits before protection as CDC revisits airborne transmission

Health workers fear it’s profits before protection as CDC revisits airborne transmission

Amy Maxmen, KFF Health News Four years after hospitals in New York City overflowed with covid-19 patients, emergency physician Sonya Stokes remains shaken by…
Lujan Grisham, Biden admin announce $10 million in federal funds for tribes, pueblos

Lujan Grisham, Biden admin announce $10 million in federal funds for tribes, pueblos

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announced Friday $10 million in funding from the federal American Rescue Plan Act was awarded to six tribal nations and…
Proposal to curb executive powers moves to House Judiciary

Proposal to curb executive powers moves to House Judiciary

The House Government, Elections and Indian Affairs Committee discussed a potential constitutional amendment that seeks to limit the governor’s executive powers. The committee approved…
U.S. Supreme Court hears case to restrict access to medication abortion

U.S. Supreme Court hears case to restrict access to medication abortion

The U.S. Supreme Court heard the case about the regulations around mifepristone, one of a two-step regime for abortion medication, on Tuesday. FDA v.…
At stake in mifepristone case: Abortion, FDA’s authority, and return to 1873 obscenity law

At stake in mifepristone case: Abortion, FDA’s authority, and return to 1873 obscenity law

Lawyers from the conservative Christian group that won the case to overturn Roe v. Wade are returning to the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday in pursuit…
Supreme Court to hear two abortion cases this spring

Supreme Court to hear two abortion cases this spring

Later this month, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the case against the abortion medication mifepristone. It will hear a second…
New Mexico Medicaid to cover cost of over-the-counter oral contraception

New Mexico Medicaid to cover cost of over-the-counter oral contraception

New Mexico Medicaid announced on Wednesday that it will cover the cost of Opill, the first oral contraception approved for over-the-counter use. It is…
U.S. Supreme Court hears case to restrict access to medication abortion

U.S. Supreme Court hears case to restrict access to medication abortion

The U.S. Supreme Court heard the case about the regulations around mifepristone, one of a two-step regime for abortion medication, on Tuesday. FDA v.…
At stake in mifepristone case: Abortion, FDA’s authority, and return to 1873 obscenity law

At stake in mifepristone case: Abortion, FDA’s authority, and return to 1873 obscenity law

Lawyers from the conservative Christian group that won the case to overturn Roe v. Wade are returning to the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday in pursuit…
San Juan County, Navajo Nation settle redistricting case

San Juan County, Navajo Nation settle redistricting case

The Navajo Nation and San Juan County reached an agreement Monday about commission districts after the tribe alleged that its members were not adequately…
MIT ranks NM elections most well-run in the U.S.

MIT ranks NM elections most well-run in the U.S.

New Mexico’s 2022 election was ranked most well-run in the country by Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Election Data and Science Lab’s Elections Performance Index.…
Emily’s List endorses seven candidates for Legislature

Emily’s List endorses seven candidates for Legislature

Emily’s List, a nonprofit that supports women candidates and reproductive rights, endorsed seven incumbents facing general election opponents in New Mexico legislative elections. All…
BLM announces final methane waste rule

BLM announces final methane waste rule

The federal Bureau of Land Management announced its final methane waste rule on Wednesday. These new regulations clamp down on the practice of venting…
U.S. Supreme Court hears case to restrict access to medication abortion

U.S. Supreme Court hears case to restrict access to medication abortion

The U.S. Supreme Court heard the case about the regulations around mifepristone, one of a two-step regime for abortion medication, on Tuesday. FDA v.…
What consumers, farmers should know about the flu impacting dairy cows

What consumers, farmers should know about the flu impacting dairy cows

Migrating birds appear to have caused a virus in dairy cattle that is causing reduced milk production. So far, the disease, which initially started…

GET INVOLVED

© 2023 New Mexico Political Report