Here are the key legislative races to watch

Today is the day that candidates for state House and Senate file to say that they are, indeed, running. As candidates file their intention to run for public office, we decided to take a look forward a few months to what districts the two parties will be focusing on come November and the general elections. […]

Here are the key legislative races to watch

Today is the day that candidates for state House and Senate file to say that they are, indeed, running.

register-to-voteAs candidates file their intention to run for public office, we decided to take a look forward a few months to what districts the two parties will be focusing on come November and the general elections.

The top of the ticket matters.

Two years ago, Republicans took the state House of Representatives for the first time in a half-century.

That same election saw Gov. Susana Martinez, a Republican, trounce Democratic opponent Gary King by more than 14 points statewide. Martinez’s win was so big that she won usually-reliable Democratic districts like one in Albuquerque’s International District, where Democrat Mimi Stewart didn’t even net a Republican challenger (Stewart was later appointed to the Senate to replace Democrat Tim Keller, who was elected State Auditor that year).

Martinez won the vote in districts represented by Democratic Reps. Eliseo Alcon, George Dodge, Doreen Gallegos, Dona Irwin, Georgene Louis, Patricia Lundstrom, Ken Martinez, Antonio “Moe” Maestas, Matthew McQueen and Jeff Steinborn.

Martinez also beat King in state Senate districts represented by Democrats Pete Campos, Jacob Candelaria, Joseph Cervantes, Phil Griego, Daniel Ivey-Soto, Tim Keller, Howie Morales, Michael Padilla, Clemente Sanchez, Michael Sanchez, John Sapien and John Arthur Smith.

Griego’s former seat is now held by Ted Barela, a Republican that the governor appointed after Griego resigned for violating the state constitution and Senate ethics rules.

All of the seats in both the Senate and House seats are up for election this year, but Martinez’s 2014 win of their districts are, in some cases, anomalies when looking back at past races.

President Barack Obama beat Republican opponent Mitt Romney in all of the districts listed above except for two: the districts represented by Irwin and Smith, conservative Democrats who both hail from Deming.

Obama also won the vote in Senate districts currently represented by Republicans Lee Cotter and John Ryan and lost both Sander Rue and Lisa Torraco’s districts by just tenths of one percentage point.

Obama beat Romney in House districts currently represented by Republicans David Adkins, Sarah Maestas Barnes, Sharon Clahchischilliage, Kelly Fajardo, Nate Gentry, Conrad James, Rick Little, Terry McMillan, Andy Nuñez, Paul Pacheco, Don Tripp and John Zimmerman.

This year, of course, is a presidential election year, which results in higher voting turnout than most. In New Mexico, presidential election years have favored Democrats for five of the last six races for the nation’s top office. The closest elections came in 2000 when Democrat Al Gore won the state by just one-tenth of a percentage point and in 2004 when Republican George W. Bush won by under 1 percent.

Democrats hope the elections will look more like the 2012 electorate than the 2014 electorate, while Republicans hope that some of the Republican wave of 2014 remains for 2016.

Bucking the top of the ticket

The name on the top of the ticket, however, can only go so far. Some of the Republican districts Obama won in 2012 and Democratic districts Martinez won in 2014 are considered too safe to even net challengers.

The Republican Party chair already admitted they are targeting seats held by Democrats Ivey-Soto, Sapien and Michael Sanchez and Soules in an attempt to wrest control of the Senate from the Democrats.

An average of how both parties performed in each district in the past two elections shows Soules with perhaps the most to worry about, with Republicans edging his district by half of a percentage point. Similarly, Democrats won Sapien’s district by just seven-tenths of one percent.

These numbers include all statewide races in 2014 and 2012.

Based on this data, Ivey-Soto and Michael Sanchez should be less concerned; Democrats win both on average by 10 points and six points, respectively.

On the House side, Democrats on average perform slightly better in districts represented by Republicans Maestas Barnes, Gentry, James, Nuñez, Pacheco and Zimmerman. Republicans, on average, perform better in districts represented by Democrats Dodge and Irwin.

It isn’t unheard of for candidates to win consistently in districts that seem hostile to that candidate’s party; Irwin (who is retiring) and Smith are two prominent examples of that.

Matthew Reichbach contributed reporting. 

We're ad free

That means that we rely on support from readers like you. Help us keep reporting on the most important New Mexico Stories by donating today.

Related

Lujan Grisham pocket vetoes two bills

Lujan Grisham pocket vetoes two bills

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham pocket vetoed two bills the legislature passed this legislative session: one changing the Cybersecurity Act and the other concerning law…
Gov signs bills with some vetoes 

Gov signs bills with some vetoes 

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed 69 bills that the legislature passed during the 2024 legislative session. These included the General Appropriations Act which contains…
Guv signs state budget

Guv signs state budget

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed the budget bill for Fiscal Year 2025 and the Capital Outlay spending bill. The FY25 state budget bill passed…
State fines oil company more than $2 million after spill

State fines oil company more than $2 million after spill

The Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department fined an oil and gas company operating in the Permian Basin more than $2 million over produced…
PRC denies request to build LNG storage facility

PRC denies request to build LNG storage facility

The New Mexico Public Regulation Commission unanimously rejected a request by the New Mexico Gas Co. to build, own and operate a liquified natural…
NM Supreme Court upholds Community Solar Rule

NM Supreme Court upholds Community Solar Rule

Hours after the New Mexico Supreme Court heard arguments in the investor-owned utilities’ appeal of the community solar rule, the justices upheld the regulations…
Amid new graduation requirements, what do high schoolers want to learn?

Amid new graduation requirements, what do high schoolers want to learn?

By Margaret O’Hara, The Santa Fe New Mexican The main things that bring Brayan Chavez to school every day: Seeing, talking to and engaging with…
Special ed teachers hope lawmakers OK pay raises, admin changes

Special ed teachers hope lawmakers OK pay raises, admin changes

By Margaret O’Hara, The Santa Fe New Mexican Brittany Behenna Griffith has a laundry list of adjectives to describe the ideal special education teacher:…
Lawmakers must find consensus on competing education spending plans

Lawmakers must find consensus on competing education spending plans

By Margaret O’Hara, The Santa Fe New Mexican A challenging task awaits New Mexico lawmakers in the next 30 days: Reconciling three very different…
Lujan Grisham, Biden admin announce $10 million in federal funds for tribes, pueblos

Lujan Grisham, Biden admin announce $10 million in federal funds for tribes, pueblos

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announced Friday $10 million in funding from the federal American Rescue Plan Act was awarded to six tribal nations and…
Proposal to curb executive powers moves to House Judiciary

Proposal to curb executive powers moves to House Judiciary

The House Government, Elections and Indian Affairs Committee discussed a potential constitutional amendment that seeks to limit the governor’s executive powers. The committee approved…
Supreme Court censures attorney over conduct in anti-COVID policy suits

Supreme Court censures attorney over conduct in anti-COVID policy suits

The New Mexico State Supreme Court censured a New Mexico attorney because of her “misconduct” in two unsuccessful cases pushing back on COVID-19 regulations…
Supreme Court to hear two abortion cases this spring

Supreme Court to hear two abortion cases this spring

Later this month, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the case against the abortion medication mifepristone. It will hear a second…
How Biden, others highlighted reproductive rights at the State of the Union

How Biden, others highlighted reproductive rights at the State of the Union

President Joe Biden highlighted reproductive rights issues as part of his State of the Union speech Thursday. Biden delivered his 2024 State of the…
Stansbury invites OB-GYN doctor as her state of the union guest 

Stansbury invites OB-GYN doctor as her state of the union guest 

U.S. House of Rep. Melanie Stansbury has invited an OB-GYN doctor from Roswell as her guest for President Joe Biden’s State of the Union…
Supreme Court to hear two abortion cases this spring

Supreme Court to hear two abortion cases this spring

Later this month, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the case against the abortion medication mifepristone. It will hear a second…
How Biden, others highlighted reproductive rights at the State of the Union

How Biden, others highlighted reproductive rights at the State of the Union

President Joe Biden highlighted reproductive rights issues as part of his State of the Union speech Thursday. Biden delivered his 2024 State of the…
Stansbury invites OB-GYN doctor as her state of the union guest 

Stansbury invites OB-GYN doctor as her state of the union guest 

U.S. House of Rep. Melanie Stansbury has invited an OB-GYN doctor from Roswell as her guest for President Joe Biden’s State of the Union…
See who’s going to be on your primary ballot in June

See who’s going to be on your primary ballot in June

Tuesday marked the official beginning of the 2024 New Mexico primary season for the legislature, with candidates officially filing for candidacy. This is the…

Bill to require disclosure of use of AI in campaign materials goes to governor

The Senate approved a bill aiming to require the disclosure of the use of artificial intelligence or other changes made by computers to campaign…
House amends, passes bill banning firearms near polling places

House amends, passes bill banning firearms near polling places

The House narrowly approved a bill that would ban firearms near polling places. The House voted 35-34 to pass the bill following an extensive…
U.S. Supreme Court lets ban on Couy Griffin from holding office stand

U.S. Supreme Court lets ban on Couy Griffin from holding office stand

The U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal of a Republican official who was barred from holding office after being convicted for a…
Politics Newsletter: legislative leaders not running for reelection

Politics Newsletter: legislative leaders not running for reelection

Hello fellow political junkies! Candidate filing day has come and gone, and members of House and Senate leadership opted to either not seek reelection…
Lujan Grisham, Biden admin announce $10 million in federal funds for tribes, pueblos

Lujan Grisham, Biden admin announce $10 million in federal funds for tribes, pueblos

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham announced Friday $10 million in funding from the federal American Rescue Plan Act was awarded to six tribal nations and…

GET INVOLVED

© 2023 New Mexico Political Report