A new poll of New Mexico voters shows a two-way battle among Democrats seeking support for the Democratic nomination in the state—while showing that top-tier Democratic names each outpace President Donald Trump in the general election. The poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows that Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has the support of 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 27 percent. They were both far ahead of entrepreneur Andrew Yang (10 percent), Massachusetts U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (8 percent) and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7 percent). No other candidate received the support of more than 3 percent of voters. New Mexico’s primary is on June 2, very late in the process; only the U.S. Virgin Islands’ June 6 Caucus is later.
But the poll indicates whichever Democrat emerges from the primary has a head start on winning New Mexico’s five electoral votes in November.
Even as Donald Trump’s campaign says it may target New Mexico in 2020, his approval in the state remains very low. That’s according to the latest polling from Morning Consult, which releases the presidential approval ratings at the state level each month. This month, Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at just 41 percent, while 56 percent disapprove of his job performance. Trump’s approval rating in New Mexico was 52 percent at the beginning of 2017 and peaked at 59 percent in April of 2017. But his approval rating has been lower than his disapproval rating in every poll since June of 2017.
A new poll is the first to show Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s approval rating. And while the number of registered New Mexico voters who approve of her job performance outnumber those who do not approve, nearly one-third of voters had no opinion. The poll by Morning Consult was conducted in the first three months of Lujan Grisham’s time in office and found that 41 percent of voters approved of her job performance while 33 percent disapproved. Another 28 percent declined to say how they felt or had no opinion. Lujan Grisham’s approval rating is higher than Susana Martinez’s approval rating when she left office.
New Mexico is one of 16 states that gave Donald Trump an approval rating of below 40 percent in 2018 according to the most recent poll by Gallup. The nationwide poll, conducted throughout 2018 as part of Gallup’s tracking poll, found that just 38 percent of New Mexico voters approved of Trump’s job performance as president, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. The numbers were actually a slight improvement from 2017, when Trump’s approval rating in New Mexico stood at 25 percent, compared to 59 percent disapproval. Nationwide, West Virginia gave Trump his highest approval ratings in 2018, at 62 percent. His lowest approval rating was Hawaii, at just 26 percent.
Gov. Susana Martinez left office with low approval ratings, according to Morning Consult.
Meanwhile, both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators’ approval ratings remained over 40 percent, with a high amount of voters with no opinion. The pollster found Martinez’s approval rating among all registered voters in her final three months in office was just 35 percent, while 49 percent disapproved of the Republican’s job performance. That was the ninth-highest disapproval rating among all 50 governors in the same time period. In her final year in office, Martinez’s approval rating remained in the mid-30 percent range. Senators
Martin Heinrich easily won re-election to the U.S. Senate in a three-way race in November, defeating Republican Mick Rich and Libertarian, and former New Mexico governor, Gary Johnson.
A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor. The ten point lead is an increase from the 7 percent race found in a September poll. The same poll found incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, leading in the three-way race against former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian, and contractor Mick Rich, a Republican. Heinrich is 20 points ahead of Rich and almost 40 ahead of Johnson.
A new poll shows good news for Democrats in New Mexico’s two top statewide races and a close race for a hard-fought congressional race in southern New Mexico. Emerson College released their second round of polling of likely voters in New Mexico, and the poll showed Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leading Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 44 percent in the gubernatorial race. The two are involved in an expensive race that has included millions of dollars spent on TV ads from both sides in the hopes of replacing Susana Martinez as governor. Martinez, a Republican, cannot run for a third consecutive term. A previous Emerson College poll conducted in August showed Lujan Grisham leading Steve Pearce 42 percent to 40 percent.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows just how close the 2nd Congressional District race remains. The poll found that Republican state Rep. Yvette Herrell leads her Democratic opponent, water attorney Xochitl Torres Small, 45 percent to 44 percent, with still 11 percent undecided. Nate Cohn of the New York Times, who is part of the congressional polling project for the newspaper, says it was their closest result yet. The poll notes that the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent means each candidate’s true numbers could be that much in either direction. Spending in the district, which is in the millions by outside groups, shows they also believe the race is one of dozens in the nation that will determine who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
Susana Martinez will be leaving office in three months, and she remains unpopular among New Mexico voters according to a recent poll. Meanwhile, the state’s two U.S. Senators still have more support than opposition, but their approval ratings remain under 50 percent. Martinez’s approval rating stand at 36 percent among registered New Mexico voters according to Morning Consult, while her disapproval rating is at 54 percent. This is barely changed from numbers released in July. The Republican governor’s disapproval rating remains sixth-highest among all governors.
From Albuquerque to New York City, pollsters are watching New Mexico. And, as part of the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives, both national parties are pouring money into television ads for their candidates. An Albuquerque Journal poll shows Democrat Deb Haaland leads in the race to replace Michelle Lujan Grisham in the 1st Congressional District, while Republican Yvette Herrell is leading the race in southern New Mexico to replace Steve Pearce in the 2nd Congressional District. The 2nd Congressional District is a Republican stronghold that Democrats are targeting this year in an attempt to retake the U.S. House of Representatives. The Journal poll showed Herrell, a state representative, leading 48 percent to 41 percent over Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, a water lawyer.