A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor. The ten point lead is an increase from the 7 percent race found in a September poll. The same poll found incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, leading in the three-way race against former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian, and contractor Mick Rich, a Republican. Heinrich is 20 points ahead of Rich and almost 40 ahead of Johnson.
A new poll shows good news for Democrats in New Mexico’s two top statewide races and a close race for a hard-fought congressional race in southern New Mexico. Emerson College released their second round of polling of likely voters in New Mexico, and the poll showed Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leading Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 44 percent in the gubernatorial race. The two are involved in an expensive race that has included millions of dollars spent on TV ads from both sides in the hopes of replacing Susana Martinez as governor. Martinez, a Republican, cannot run for a third consecutive term. A previous Emerson College poll conducted in August showed Lujan Grisham leading Steve Pearce 42 percent to 40 percent.
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows just how close the 2nd Congressional District race remains. The poll found that Republican state Rep. Yvette Herrell leads her Democratic opponent, water attorney Xochitl Torres Small, 45 percent to 44 percent, with still 11 percent undecided. Nate Cohn of the New York Times, who is part of the congressional polling project for the newspaper, says it was their closest result yet. The poll notes that the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent means each candidate’s true numbers could be that much in either direction. Spending in the district, which is in the millions by outside groups, shows they also believe the race is one of dozens in the nation that will determine who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
Susana Martinez will be leaving office in three months, and she remains unpopular among New Mexico voters according to a recent poll. Meanwhile, the state’s two U.S. Senators still have more support than opposition, but their approval ratings remain under 50 percent. Martinez’s approval rating stand at 36 percent among registered New Mexico voters according to Morning Consult, while her disapproval rating is at 54 percent. This is barely changed from numbers released in July. The Republican governor’s disapproval rating remains sixth-highest among all governors.
From Albuquerque to New York City, pollsters are watching New Mexico. And, as part of the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives, both national parties are pouring money into television ads for their candidates. An Albuquerque Journal poll shows Democrat Deb Haaland leads in the race to replace Michelle Lujan Grisham in the 1st Congressional District, while Republican Yvette Herrell is leading the race in southern New Mexico to replace Steve Pearce in the 2nd Congressional District. The 2nd Congressional District is a Republican stronghold that Democrats are targeting this year in an attempt to retake the U.S. House of Representatives. The Journal poll showed Herrell, a state representative, leading 48 percent to 41 percent over Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, a water lawyer.
Democrats are ahead in two of New Mexico’s most important races, according to an Albuquerque Journal poll. The poll’s results, released Sunday, showed 50 percent of likely voters would support Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham and 43 percent for Republican Steve Pearce. The two are looking to replace Susana Martinez, a Republican who is term-limited and cannot run for a third consecutive term. Both Lujan Grisham and Pearce are U.S. representatives, leaving their positions for the statewide run. Pollster Brian Sanderoff told the Albuquerque Journal that Pearce needs more support in the Albuquerque metro area, which holds a large percentage of the state’s population, if he wants to close the gap.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating keeps dropping in New Mexico.. The pollster Morning Consult found that in August just 40 percent of registered voters approved of his job performance, while 56 percent disapproved. That’s down a couple of points from July, when 42 percent of New Mexico registered voters said they approved of Trump’s job performance and 55 percent said they disapproved. The last time Trump’s approval rating in New Mexico was at or below 40 percent in the Morning Consult poll was in January. Nationwide, the president’s approval rating is 42 percent, while his disapproval is 53 percent.
An internal poll conducted for the Michelle Lujan Grisham campaign shows she leads Steve Pearce in the gubernatorial race by eight percentage points. The poll, by Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, shows Lujan Grisham, the Democratic nominee, currently leads 52 percent to 44 percent. The polling memo says this is an increase from a five-point lead in June, after the primary. The memo says Lujan Grisham “is well positioned to be New Mexico’s next Governor.”
The Pearce campaign called it an “invented poll…designed to calm the panic.”
Pearce campaign spokesman Kevin Sheridan also referred to an outside ad, not from the Lujan Grisham campaign that KOAT-TV pulled down for being false, and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver reinstating straight-ticket voting. Republicans and Libertarians filed a lawsuit to stop her from making the change.
The flood of U.S. Senate polls since Gary Johnson entered the race continued this week. Two new partisan polls show different visions of the U.S. Senate race, but both show the incumbent leading while the insurgent Libertarian candidate trails in third place. One newly-released poll by Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research for The Majority Institute, an organization that seeks to elect Democrats to the U.S. Senate, showed Heinrich with the support of 48 percent of likely voters, compared to 33 percent for Republican Mick Rich and 17 percent for Johnson, a former governor. The poll was conducted in early August, before Johnson formally entered the race. Another poll released before Johnson formally entered the race showed the same order.
The race for New Mexico governor is tight, while the incumbent Democratic U.S. senator holds a sizeable lead over his two challengers, according to a new poll from Emerson College. The poll, conducted last week, via calls to landlines and online surveys and released Monday morning, shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham with a two point lead over Republican nominee Steve Pearce, 42 percent to 40 percent. The poll shows 18 percent of voters polled are still undecided. The poll is of registered voters. Both candidates are leaving their respective congressional seats to run for governor.