October 19, 2016

Poll shows Clinton leading Trump by 10 in NM

Hillary Clinton at Valley Southwoods Freshman High School in West Des Moines, Iowa. Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore cc

A recently-released poll shows Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by double digits in New Mexico, up from a five percent lead last month in a survey from that same survey.

Both results comes from ZiaPoll, a pollster based in New Mexico. ZiaPoll provided NM Political Report with the full results of a poll conducted on the final day of voter registration in New Mexico and a previous poll conducted two weeks earlier.

The poll conducted on Oct. 11 shows 46 percent of likely voters in New Mexico backing Clinton compared to 36 percent who say they would vote for Trump. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson received the backing of 12 percent, while 2 percent said they preferred Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Of those polled, just 4 percent are still undecided.

Johnson is a former New Mexico governor and New Mexico is one of the states, if not the state, with his best election numbers.

A Sept. 24 poll from ZiaPolls showed Clinton’s support in New Mexico at 42 percent, with support for Trump at 37 percent, Johnson at 16 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

The Sept. 24 poll also looked at each of the state’s three congressional races and found all of the incumbents, Democrats Michelle Lujan Grisham and Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Steve Pearce, with healthy leads over their opponents.

Favorability ratings

In the poll on Oct. 11, 49 percent of likely voters had a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 50 percent who had an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, 40 percent had a favorable opinion, compared to 59 percent who had an unfavorable opinion.

This follows a national trend where neither candidate is particularly popular, but Clinton is more popular than Trump.

The Oct. 11 poll also found that 90 percent of voters were “very aware” of the video that “contained audio of Donald Trump making crude sexual remarks about women.”

Meanwhile, 73 percent were “very aware” of the hacked emails from Clinton (though it said they were hacked from Clinton’s email server; they were hacked from the personal email account of campaign chair John Podesta).

The Sept. 24 poll examined likely voters’ opinions on President Barack Obama and Gov. Susana Martinez.

That poll found 51 percent had a favorable opinion of Obama, while 47 percent had an unfavorable opinion.

For Martinez, 51 percent had a favorable opinion, compared to 48 percent who had an unfavorable opinion.

The poll did not look at job approval numbers for either Obama or Martinez. The Oct. 11 poll did not examine the favorability of Obama or Martinez.

Other questions

The poll also delved into two hot topics in New Mexico—whether voter ID should be required for people to vote in elections and bringing back the death penalty.

The poll finds that 67 percent of likely voters support requiring voter ID, compared to the 30 percent in opposition.

When it comes to the death penalty for those convicted of killing children, police or corrections officers, 62 percent said they would support reinstating the death penalty, compared to 29 percent who said they would oppose it.

Former Gov. Bill Richardson signed a bill repealing the death penalty in New Mexico in 2009.

Meanwhile, 76 percent support life sentences without the possibility of parole for those “who commit heinous crimes” while 11 percent said they did not support life imprisonment without parole.


ZiaPoll describes itself as a “non-partisan public opinion pollster” based out of New Mexico. All numbers in this post are rounded to the nearest full number.

Both polls surveyed  using IVR, though the Oct. 11 poll used inbound cell phone calls. Mobile subscribers called in and took the poll via their cell phone according ZiaPolls co-founder Brandon Gregoire.

The Oct. 11 poll surveyed 1,536 likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Sept. 24 poll surveyed 1,415 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

Correction: This originally said the interviews were conducted by live interviewers. Instead, they were conducted through IVR, or interactive voice response technology.