November 7, 2016

Clinton by 2 over Trump in latest poll

Hillary Clinton at the Winning Healthcare in 2009 forum in Denver. Photo Credit: WEBN-TV cc

A final poll of the presidential race in New Mexico shows Hillary Clinton clinging to a two-point lead over Republican Donald Trump.

The poll by ZiaPolls was conducted Nov. 6 and surveyed 8,429 likely voters—a much larger number than normal for a public opinion poll, especially for a statewide poll. The poll finds Clinton has the support of 46 percent of likely New Mexico voters to Trump’s 44 percent. Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, running as a Libertarian, receives the support of just 6 percent of voters, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 1 percent.

A SurveyMonkey poll, using an online but scientific process, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 6 found Clinton leading in New Mexico by 4 percent.

The poll says that 70 percent of respondents plan to vote with 30.5 percent say they already voted. Turnout among registered voters is already at 40.5 percent even before Election Day.

According to the release of the results, 5 percent more Democrats say they will vote for Trump than Republicans who say they will vote for Clinton.

The pollster weighted the results by age, political party, sex, congressional district and ethnicity. In a previous poll, the pollster said the results were also weighted by voter enthusiasm.

That poll showed Clinton leading Trump by 3 percent.

Another recent poll by Research and Polling, Inc., which used live interviews and conducted last week, showed Clinton leading Trump 45 percent to 40 percent.

FiveThirtyEight currently gives Clinton an 80.6 percent chance of winning New Mexico’s five electoral votes, to Trump’s 19.2 percent. Johnson’s odds are at 0.2 percent.

For Johnson, getting to 5 percent would be a big deal in New Mexico. It would give the Libertarian Party major party status in the state, with would give the party more advantages than smaller third parties. Currently, only the Democratic and Republican parties have enough support to qualify as major parties in the state.

The poll of 8,429 likely voters was conducted by ZiaPoll using Interactive Voice Response (or IVR) for voters with landlines. Those with cell phones were asked to call-in to complete the same survey (federal law prohibits calling cell phones using IVR technology). The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percent.

ZiaPoll Nov. 6 by New Mexico Political Report on Scribd