Incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich starts the general election for his second reelection campaign ahead by seven points over his Republican challenger.
According to a poll by Public Policy Polling commissioned by NM Political Report, Heinrich leads Republican Nella Domenici, a former hedge fund executive and daughter of long-term former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici, among New Mexico registered voters 47 percent to 40 percent. This leaves 13 percent who said they were undecided.
In 2018, Heinrich won his first reelection campaign in a three-way race, defeating Republican Mick Rich and Libertarian Gary Johnson, a former two-term governor of New Mexico, with 54 percent of the vote.
Pete Domenici was the last Republican to win a U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, when he won his sixth term in 2002.
Heinrich holds a large lead among women surveyed, 48 percent to 37 percent, with 15 percent who say they are not sure. Heinrich holds a slight advantage over Domenici 46 percent to 43 percent, with 11 percent who say they are not sure.
Similar to the presidential race in New Mexico, Heinrich and Domenici each have similar leads among voters of their own parties. Heinrich leads among Democrats 73 percent to 16 percent, while Domenici leads 72 percent to 18 percent among Republicans. Domenici holds a slight edge among independents, 41 percent to 39 percent.
Also similar to the presidential race, the Democrat holds a large advantage among Hispanic or Latino voters.
Heinrich leads Domenici 59 percent to 24 percent among Hispanic or Latino voters, while Domenici leads Heinrich 52 percent to 38 percent among white voters. In those in other races, Heinrich leads 56 percent to 29 percent.
Public Policy Polling polled 555 New Mexico voters on June 13 and 14 by landline and text messages. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent, which means any topline result could be 4.2 percent lower or higher. Subgroups have higher margins of error. Percentages may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.