Nearly 112,000 New Mexicans could lose health insurance under President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” according to a new Democratic Party analysis that warns the federal law will disproportionately impact the state’s rural communities and low-income families.
The Democratic National Committee launched a website (https://democrats.org/trump-tax/) on Tuesday highlighting state-by-state impacts of Trump’s budget reconciliation bill, which became law July 4. For New Mexico — where roughly 40% of residents rely on Medicaid, the highest rate in the nation — the projected cuts could be devastating.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said she is prepared to “fight like hell” to protect New Mexico from the law’s impacts and may call a special legislative session. The governor condemned the legislation as “an abomination that abandons working families and threatens the health and well-being of New Mexicans.”
U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, who hosted healthcare roundtables across the state, said the bill represents an unprecedented threat to New Mexico.
“You couldn’t design a budget reconciliation package that would be worse for the state of New Mexico than what we’re going to vote on,” Heinrich said in June, warning that the state could lose $4 billion annually over five years.
U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez voted against the House version and introduced amendments to protect rural hospitals, calling the measure “a Republican bill that will decimate rural health care to pay for tax breaks for the rich.”
The Democratic Party’s projections align with independent analyses. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that 10.9 to 11.8 million Americans nationally would lose health insurance under the law’s Medicaid and Affordable Care Act cuts. The Kaiser Family Foundation confirmed these projections in its own July analysis.
Heinrich’s office, citing Congressional Budget Office data, estimates approximately 96,000 New Mexicans could lose Medicaid coverage specifically — a figure close to the Democratic Party’s broader health insurance loss projection.
The law threatens to force closure of 15 rural hospitals in New Mexico, according to a U.S. Senate Budget Committee analysis citing research from the University of North Carolina. Troy Clark, president of the New Mexico Hospital Association, warned that six to eight hospitals could close within 18 months if federal funding is cut.
“In New Mexico, rural hospitals are often the only source for primary care, dental services, labor and delivery, pediatric care, and more,” Vasquez said. “When those hospitals close, entire communities are left with nowhere to turn for the care they need.”
The Democratic analysis projects additional impacts for New Mexico families:
- 55,000 New Mexicans at risk of losing food assistance through SNAP cuts
- Nearly 26,000 New Mexicans could lose jobs due to healthcare and program cuts
- Median households will lose $750 from tax changes alone, or nearly $1,700 when combined with tariff policies
- Electricity bills could rise by 24% due to clean energy tax credit eliminations
- Trump’s tariffs have already cost New Mexico businesses $81.5 million, according to the analysis
The Democratic National Committee’s TrumpTax.com website draws on projections from multiple sources, including the Congressional Budget Office, academic research centers, and policy think tanks. However, as a partisan political organization, the DNC has an interest in presenting the law’s impacts in the most negative light possible.
Republicans have not provided specific responses to the New Mexico projections, though supporters of the law argue it will reduce government spending and provide tax relief to working families.
The law is now in effect, but state officials are exploring options to mitigate its impacts. Lujan Grisham has indicated she may convene a special legislative session to address budget shortfalls and service cuts.
Heinrich said he continues working with Western state Republicans to build opposition to the healthcare cuts.
“I think the more of those conversations we can have, the better the chance that we’re either going to significantly change this, or down the road, we’re going to be able to overturn it,” he said.
The impacts are expected to unfold over several years, with the most significant coverage losses projected by 2034 according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.