A new poll shows Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in a two-way race in New Mexico, but the former Secretary of State edges Trump in the state when third-party candidates are included. That’s the news from a Morning Consult poll released Thursday. The poll is part of a fifty-state survey released by the organization involving questions from polls throughout August. The poll shows Trump leading Clinton 42.6 percent to 39.8 percent in a two-way race in New Mexico, with 17.6 percent of respondents saying they don’t know or are undecided. When Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are added to the mix, Clinton narrowly leads Trump 35.9 percent to 34.7 percent.
A new poll shows Hillary Clinton with more than 50 percent support in New Mexico in a two-way race but, perhaps more interesting, Gary Johnson with nearly equal the support of Donald Trump in a four-way race. The results of the Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll found Clinton, the Democratic nominee, leads Trump, the Republican nominee, 51 percent to 37 percent in a two-way race. But when you add Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton falls to 37 percent, Trump falls to 29 percent, but Johnson picks up 25 percent support and Stein picks up 5 percent. The poll itself, however, has a non-traditional methodology which could cast doubts on the results. Following the poll, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight noted that Johnson’s odds of winning New Mexico went up to two percent in their polls-only forecast (Johnson is at just 0.7 percent in the polls-plus forecast, which includes information on the economy as well as historical voting trends from the state).
The Democrats running for president and Secretary of State continue to lead in their races, though a third party candidate on the presidential ballot who is familiar to New Mexicans is getting a lot of support. A poll commissioned by NM Political Report and conducted by Public Policy Polling finds Hillary Clinton leading in a four-way race for president with 40 percent support among New Mexico registered voters. Republican candidate Donald Trump trails Clinton with 31 percent of support while Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson gets 16 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 4 percent. Related: Poll: NM voters support bringing back the death penalty
Only 9 percent of registered voters remain undecided in the presidential race, according to the poll. Johnson is a former two-term governor of New Mexico.
Less than a week before Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence is scheduled to headline a fundraiser in New Mexico, the Libertarian Party ticket will hold a public rally in Albuquerque. The Gary Johnson campaign told NM Political Report that Johnson and his running mate Bill Weld will appear at the Albuquerque Convention Center this Thursday, the first such rally by Johnson in New Mexico since he became the Libertarian Party presidential nominee. Many in New Mexico still remember Johnson from his two terms as governor. Often referred to as “Governor No,” Johnson takes pride in the high number of bills he vetoed while in office. Weld is a former two-term governor of Massachusetts.
If you’re looking for consistency in Gary Johnson’s poll numbers, the polls released in the last week won’t help you. In five polls that included the Libertarian Party candidates’ name, his support spans from just four percent to 11 percent. The poll that showed Johnson’s greatest support was conducted by Morning Consult, which showed 11 percent of registered voters would choose Johnson when pitted against presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who received 39 percent of the support, and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, 36 percent. When Johnson was not included, Clinton led 44 percent to 39 percent. According to Morning Consult, at least, Johnson takes more support away from the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate.
More and more pollsters are including Gary Johnson as an option in presidential horserace questions and Johnson still isn’t quite hitting the big 15 percent threshold—especially when another third party candidate is thrown in the mix. The three most recent national polls to throw Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, into the mix were the Bloomberg/Selzer, CBS News and Ipsos/Reuters polls. Reaching 15 percent is important because all presidential candidates with an average of that level of support qualify to appear on nationally-televised presidential debates. The Commission on Presidential Debates runs these debates. Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, performs best in the CBS News poll, which puts him at 11 percent, four percent off of the 15 percent mark.
The Bernie Sanders supporter who slowed down a Bill Clinton surprise meet and greet in Santa Fe is getting his fifteen minutes of fame. The story went viral after Buzzfeed recounted some of the conversation. Much of the conversation was inaudible to reporters. NM Political Report was one of three local outlets to follow Clinton at two unscheduled campaign stops last week. This week, Brody appeared on “Democracy Now!,” a progressive news radio and TV program.
The upbeat polling news for Gary Johnson, which consisted of one poll that had him in double-digits against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, may already be over. A national Public Policy Polling survey included the former New Mexico governor as the Libertarian Party candidate and Jill stein as the Green Party candidate. The poll put Johnson at 4 percent and Stein at 2 percent. The pollster does polls for Democratic clients, though this poll was not commissioned by any candidate or political action committee. In that version of the poll, Clinton led Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, a result within the margin of error.