June 20, 2018

Poll: Lujan Grisham leads Pearce in governor’s race

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A new poll shows that Democrats lead in statewide races, while Republicans are currently in the lead in the race to keep the 2nd Congressional District seat vacated by the Republican incumbent.

KOB-TV first reported on the poll, which was released by Carroll Strategies Wednesday morning.

The poll by Carroll Strategies shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads 50.5 percent to 42.1 percent, while Libertarian Bob Walsh pulls in 3.1 percent (it isn’t clear yet if Walsh will appear on the general election ballot). Four percent of voters are undecided.

Incumbent Susana Martinez, a Republican, cannot run for a third term because of term limits. Lujan Grisham is coming off a large Democratic primary win over two opponents, while Pearce did not have any opposition.

An internal poll from Pearce showed he trailed by 2 percentage points.

In another big statewide race, incumbent U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, has the support of 49.8 percent of likely voters, while Republican Mick Rich has the support of 39.3 percent and Libertarian Aubrey Dunn has the support of 5.3 percent.

No candidate had an opponent in the primary. This is Heinrich’s first reelection campaign after beating former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson by 6 percentage points in 2012.

Congressional races

The poll also shows a closer race in the 1st Congressional District than in the past handful of elections. Democrat Debra Haaland leads Republican Janice Arnold-Jones 47 percent to 42.7 percent, while Libertarian Lloyd Princeton has the support of 3.6 percent.

Democrats have held this seat since winning the 2008 election, though it was previously a Republican stronghold. The incumbent, Lujan Grisham, is running for governor.

In the state’s 2nd Congressional District, Republican Yvette Herrell leads 48.5 percent to 34.7 percent over Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, with 16.8 percent still undecided. There is no Libertarian Party candidate in that race.

Like in the 1st Congressional District, the incumbent in the 2nd Congressional District is running for governor. This time, it is Republican Steve Pearce, who has held the seat without much trouble since winning it back in 2010 (he previously left the seat for an unsuccessful U.S. Senate run in 2008).

A poll by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released Tuesday showed a much closer race.

In the 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a sizeable lead, 58.1 percent to 30 percent, over Republican Jerald Steve McFall, with Libertarian Christopher Manning receiving 4.7 percent.

Other statewide races

The closest statewide race is a narrow 44 percent to 41 percent lead for Democrat Stephanie Garcia Richard over Republican Pat Lyons in the Commissioner of Public Lands race, with Libertarian Michael Lucero picking up 5 percent. There are still 9 percent undecided.

The poll shows a large lead for Democrat Hector Balderas, who has the support of 55 percent of likely voters, to 33 percent for Michael Hendricks and 5 percent for Libertarian A. Blair Dunn.

In the State Auditor race, Democrat Brian Colón has the support of 50 percent to Republican Wayne Johnson’s 39 percent, with 12 percent still undecided.

Incumbent Democrat Tim Eichenberg also leads the State Treasurer race over Republican Arthur Castillo, 46.5 percent to 37.5 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,199 likely voters on June 15 and 16. The margin of error on the statewide races is +/- 2.8 percent. The poll was conducted through IVR, which means only landlines were surveyed.