August 31, 2018

Lujan Grisham internal poll shows 8 point lead over Pearce

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An internal poll conducted for the Michelle Lujan Grisham campaign shows she leads Steve Pearce in the gubernatorial race by eight percentage points.

The poll, by Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, shows Lujan Grisham, the Democratic nominee, currently leads 52 percent to 44 percent. The polling memo says this is an increase from a five-point lead in June, after the primary.

The memo says Lujan Grisham “is well positioned to be New Mexico’s next Governor.”

The Pearce campaign called it an “invented poll…designed to calm the panic.”

Pearce campaign spokesman Kevin Sheridan also referred to an outside ad, not from the Lujan Grisham campaign that KOAT-TV pulled down for being false, and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver reinstating straight-ticket voting. Republicans and Libertarians filed a lawsuit to stop her from making the change.

A poll conducted by Emerson College earlier this month showed Lujan Grisham with a two percentage point lead, within the poll’s margin of error.

NM Political Report asked if the Pearce campaign had its own internal poll showing different numbers, but did not receive a response.

The poll also shows that both Lujan Grisham and Pearce have seen favorability numbers increase since June, though Lujan Grisham’s have grown by more.

Lujan Grisham has a favorable rating of 47 percent to 29 percent unfavorable among likely voters, compared to 38 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable for Pearce.

Both are much more popular than President Donald Trump and Gov. Susana Martinez, both Republicans.

Internal polls are not necessarily less accurate than public polls. But campaigns usually only release them if they show good news for the campaign, which means readers should take them with a grain of salt. All questions polled are also not included in these results.

The poll was conducted between Aug. 18 and 22. The poll surveyed 600 likely general election voters by both cell phone and landline. The poll has a margin of error +/- 4 percentage points.