November 5, 2018

Poll shows Dems lead in most statewide races

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A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans.

A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor.

The ten point lead is an increase from the 7 percent race found in a September poll.

The same poll found incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, leading in the three-way race against former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian, and contractor Mick Rich, a Republican. Heinrich is 20 points ahead of Rich and almost 40 ahead of Johnson.

In the 1st Congressional District race, Democrat Deb Haaland leads Republican Janice Arnold-Jones 50 percent to 38 percent, with Libertarian Lloyd Princeton at 5 percent. That poll of 419 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

The Democrats in other statewide races like Attorney General and Secretary of State held large leads.

As with all polls, the results are just one data point in looking at the elections. The statewide poll surveyed 438 likely voters between Oct. 26 and Nov. 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. That means any candidate’s results can differ in either direction by as much as 4.7 percentage points.

There are, however, two races that the poll found are very much up for grabs in the final days of the election. The closest statewide race is that for State Land Commissioner, an under-noticed but important position when it comes to public lands and oil and gas in the state.

The poll found Republican Public Regulation Commissioner Pat Lyons leads State Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard 45 percent to 42 percent with Libertarian Michael Lucero pulling in 6 percent.

In the 2nd Congressional District race, the Journal poll found Republican State Rep. Yvette Herrell leads Democratic water attorney Xochitl Torres Small 46 percent to 45 percent. The race is considered a toss-up by many political pundits and other observers. It is also one of the most-expensive races in state history. That poll surveyed 413 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

The Albuquerque Journal polls surveyed both by landline and cell phone.