Columnists in NM Political Report
Pat Davis is the founder and publisher of NM Political Report, City Desk ABQ and the nm.news network. He is a recovering politician having served eight years as an Albuquerque City Councilor and, in another life, served as a police officer and nonprofit organizer.
Last week, I wrote about new polling in the Democratic primary for governor that showed Deb Haaland out front of Sam Bregman by a comfortable margin: 56%-26%, with 18% still undecided.
In the intervening days, reporting from New Mexico Political Report and others have detailed that, in 2014, Haaland flew on a private jet chartered for Gary King’s campaign for governor by Epstein.
As you might imagine, Bregman’s team sees that revelation as an opportunity to weaken Haaland’s support among likely voters so they tested the impact in a new poll completed earlier this week and we got an early look at the results.
After hearing questions about the jet flight’s Epstein connection, likely voters pegged Haaland’s support at 46%. Bregman follows at 25% (26% still remain undecided). The poll of 696 likely Democratic primary voters was taken Feb. 21-24, beginning just one day after news of Haaland’s trip was first reported.
Questions we’ve reviewed show that Bregman’s campaign asked about the Epstein plane two different ways. First, “How familiar are you with the recent story that Deb Haaland flew on Jeffrey Epstein’s private jet when she was running for Lieutenant Governor in 2014?” and second, “Recently released records show that in 2014, Deb Haaland flew on a private jet chartered by Jeffrey Epstein that included a member of the family that sold the Zorro Ranch to Epstein. This occurred six years after Epstein pled guilty to sex crimes with minors. Deb Haaland and her running mate recently denied that they knew that it was Epstein’s plane even though emails show that the campaign requested the plane and asked Epstein for a $50,000 campaign contribution.”
Records show that the plane was not Epstein’s but was arranged from a charter company at his request for King’s use.
When I asked Haaland’s team about it, the campaign noted that both poll questions appear designed to minimize the role of King who actually appeared in emails requesting the contributions and flight from Epstein. Haaland has denied knowing that the plane was connected to Epstein when she flew.
Haaland spokesperson Hannah Menchhoff offered her own analysis: “Deb has a commanding lead in the race to be New Mexico’s next governor. That’s because New Mexicans know Deb and understand she can lead our state and fight Trump’s abuse of power. Voters know she is the best candidate to take on Kristi Noem’s ICE, invest in education and bring costs down.”
Since both candidates officially kicked off their campaigns last April, I’ve written about all three polls shared publicly in the race. Incidentally, they’ve all come from Haaland’s orbit and all show Haaland with a steady lead. The poll memo accompanying Bregman’s new poll happened to also disclose previously unreported internal polling that mostly tracked with Haaland’s leaked polls: Haaland’s early lead above 60% had settled in around 50% before the most recent news cycles. Bregman, meanwhile, is slowly earning support, most notably from the exit of former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima before filing day.
Comparing the two polls taken weeks apart is almost impossible because of the way they were designed but both agree that Bregman’s support is set at about 25%, for now, though he’s been steadily gaining support in polling. Spending over $300,000 on TV ads and having Miyagishima leave the race likely contribute to that bump.
In either case, the real election is still months away and it’s all a toss up once the real negative ads start flying.
Do you have a tip on politics or elections you want to share? Email me: pat@newmexico.news