Does rural New Mexico matter anymore? 79% of Democratic win came from just 4 urban counties

Commentary by Pat Davis, New Mexico Political Report – Despite polling predictions of a close race, Governor-elect Deb Haaland easily defeated Republican Gregg Hull by about 14 points and more than 100,000 votes. Democrats across the state won every major race by a nearly 60%–40% margin, or better, and Haaland will take office with a near supermajority of Democrats in both chambers of the legislature.

That prompted many analysts to ask if Republicans still matter in New Mexico, but the question is even bigger than that: Does rural New Mexico still matter? Hear me out.

When ranking New Mexico’s 33 counties by the raw votes cast for the Democratic ticket, 70% of the votes Deb Haaland needed to win came from just three urban counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana and Santa Fe. Add in Sandoval County and 79% of the votes needed for the Democrat to win the biggest office in the state to win came from just 4 counties.

In overall voter turnout, the state’s four largest and most urban counties accounted for 62% of total votes cast.

Rural and Republican New Mexicans have crowed for years that policies in Santa Fe favor a few counties along the Rio Grande, and for good reason. The data makes it clear: The Democratic majority needed to win is increasingly an urban and/or more progressive electorate.

So what’s the incentive for Governor-elect Deb Haaland, new Senate Majority Leader Linda Trujillo, Senate President Mimi Stewart, and Speaker Javier Martínez to work with Republicans who spent the last two years warning of societal collapse if Haaland and Democrats won?

It may be a bitter pill to swallow, but the numbers don’t lie. Susana Martinez, the last Republican to win a major race, left office with a 35% approval rating, and Democrats have been racking up wins ever since.

As a former progressive organizer and Democrat who served two terms in elected office, I can assure you that Democrats, urban and rural alike, will be well rewarded at the next election if they choose to go it alone, and this election shows that they can.

Democrats have to be careful to avoid an agenda for Rio Grande-only counties, but the rest of the state also has to come to the table with an understanding of how the solutions they want can be built inside the new Democratic political structure. Yelling from the sidelines isn’t going to cut it. 

I’ve joked for years that I would start a class teaching Republicans in blue cities and states to speak Democrat. Not to change their position, but to keep them from being ignored. It may be time to open registration.