February 28, 2016

Poll: NM Dems prefer Clinton over Sanders

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Hillary Clinton at the Winning Healthcare in 2009 forum in Denver. Photo Credit: WEBN-TV cc

Hillary Clinton has a wide lead over Bernie Sanders in New Mexico, according to a new poll from the Albuquerque Journal.

Hillary Clinton at the Winning Healthcare in 2009 forum in Denver. Photo Credit: WEBN-TV cc

Hillary Clinton at the Winning Healthcare in 2009 forum in Denver. Photo Credit: WEBN-TV cc

Clinton leads Sanders 47 percent to 33 percent among New Mexico Democrats who are likely to vote in the June primaries. This leaves a large amount—20 percent—undecided, which makes sense since the primaries are still more than two months away.

Clinton leads among women 57 percent to 22 percent, while Sanders leads among men 45 percent to 35 percent.

Sanders leads among voters from ages 18 to 49, while Clinton leads among voters from ages 50 and up; older voters are more likely to participate in elections, which accounts for much of Clinton’s overall lead.

Most interestingly are the breakdowns among Hispanics, where Clinton leads 51 percent to 25 percent.

Sanders and Clinton were very close in Iowa and Sanders won by a wide margin in New Hampshire. Both are among the ten states in the nation with a population that is  over 90 percent.

In states with more minorities, who are more likely to be Democrats, Clinton won by 5 percentage points in the Nevada caucuses and by nearly 50 percentage points in South Carolina. New Mexico is the state with the highest percentage of Hispanics and Latinos, at 47 percent.

Still, there are 24 percent of Hispanics who are undecided.

All of this may not mean much in the end; New Mexico’s primaries take place in June, which is usually long after things have been decided in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.

Research and Polling polled between Feb. 23 and 25, before the South Carolina primaries took place.

A Research and Polling poll showed Ted Cruz and Donald Trump neck and neck among Republican voters in New Mexico.

From the Journal on the methodology of the poll:

The poll surveyed 401 New Mexico Democrats who are likely to vote in the state’s June 7 primary election. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Fifty-one percent of those responding to the poll were reached by cellphone.

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