May 10, 2016

Johnson polls at 4 percent vs Clinton, Trump

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Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson speaking at the Nullify Now! event in Downtown Phoenix, Arizona. Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore cc

The upbeat polling news for Gary Johnson, which consisted of one poll that had him in double-digits against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, may already be over.

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson speaking at the Nullify Now! event in Downtown Phoenix, Arizona. Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore cc

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson speaking at the Nullify Now! event in Downtown Phoenix, Arizona. Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore cc

A national Public Policy Polling  survey included the former New Mexico governor as the Libertarian Party candidate and Jill stein as the Green Party candidate. The poll put Johnson at 4 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

The pollster does polls for Democratic clients, though this poll was not commissioned by any candidate or political action committee.

In that version of the poll, Clinton led Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, a result within the margin of error. Without either third-party candidate, Clinton leads 47 percent to 41 percent, barely within the margin of error.

When Bernie Sanders is tested with third party candidates, he leads Trump 47 percent to 37 percent, with Johnson at 3 percent and Stein at 1 percent. Head to head, Sanders leads Trump 50 percent to 39 percent.

Johnson, interestingly enough, received 6 percent of the vote of not just very conservative and somewhat conservative voters, but 6 percent of very liberal voters in a matchup against Clinton, Stein and Trump.

Johnson also did better among women than men, both when tested against Clinton and Sanders.

Not surprisingly, Johnson does best among independents; in the Clinton matchup, Johnson receives 10 percent of support of independents to 2 percent Democrats and 4 percent Republicans. In the Sanders matchup, he receives support from 6 percent of independents, 3 percent of Republicans and 2 percent of Democrats.

But will Johnson have his name on other national polls and reap the benefits of even that small amount of publicity?

One major pollster, Quinnipiac, isn’t saying.

While appearing on The Michael Smerconish Program, a SiriusXM radio show, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Assistant Director Peter Brown refused to answer whether or not Johnson will appear on future polls.

“We don’t talk about how we put our polls together,” Brown answered when asked if Johnson would appear on future Quinnipiac polls.

“We don’t talk about how we decide what we put in our polls,” Brown said when asked a second time. “And we don’t make public our questionnaires until we’re ready to release the results.”

Most pollsters have not included Johnson.

The Commission on Presidential Debates requires candidates to poll at 15 percent or higher in selective national polls to appear on the nationally-televised debates.

The Public Policy Polling national poll surveyed 1,222 registered voters between May 6 and May 9. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. The poll surveyed 80 percent of registered voters on landlines and 20 percent through an opt-in internet panel if they said they do not have landlines.

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