August 24, 2016

Poll: Clinton leads Trump in NM, Toulouse Oliver leads SOS race

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The Democrats running for president and Secretary of State continue to lead in their races, though a third party candidate on the presidential ballot who is familiar to New Mexicans is getting a lot of support.

3A poll commissioned by NM Political Report and conducted by Public Policy Polling finds Hillary Clinton leading in a four-way race for president with 40 percent support among New Mexico registered voters. Republican candidate Donald Trump trails Clinton with 31 percent of support while Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson gets 16 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 4 percent.

Related: Poll: NM voters support bringing back the death penalty

Only 9 percent of registered voters remain undecided in the presidential race, according to the poll.

Johnson is a former two-term governor of New Mexico. In 2012, Johnson was the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee and received just under 4 percent of the vote in New Mexico. This was Johnson’s best performance in any state.

In New Mexico’s biggest statewide race this fall, Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver leads Republican Nora Espinoza 42 percent to 35 percent.

4 (1)Still, 23 percent of New Mexico registered voters haven’t made up their minds in the Secretary of State race, more than twice the number of undecideds in the presidential race.

Results from this latest poll, which surveyed 1,103 New Mexico voters between Aug. 19-21, aren’t very different from a May poll conducted by PPP for NM Political Report. The May poll found Clinton’s support in New Mexico at 41 percent, Trump at 33 percent and Johnson at 14 percent. That poll did not include Stein.

The May poll found Toulouse Oliver leading Espinoza 43 percent to 36 percent.

Clinton leads in New Mexico among both men and women.

pres race genderAmong women, 42 percent support Clinton, 30 percent support Trump, 14 percent support Johnson and 4 percent prefer Stein. Clinton leads more narrowly among men, a typically more conservative voting bloc, with 36 percent compared to 33 percent for Trump. Johnson gets 18 percent support from men while Stein gets 5 percent.

A majority of Hispanic voters back Clinton, with 51 percent supporting Clinton compared to 30 percent supporting Trump. Johnson gets 13 percent of Hispanic support while Stein trails with four percent.

Toulouse Oliver leads among many of the same demographics as Clinton. She leads Espinoza among Hispanic voters 49 percent to 27 percent. She leads among women 42 percent to 32 percent and among men 42 percent to 38 percent.

Pres race by ageToulouse Oliver’s leads in these areas reflect her overall lead—similar to Clinton’s, though slightly smaller.

While Trump only has the support of 61 percent of Republican voters, Espinoza gets the support of 65 percent. But her lead is actually smaller than Trump’s, because Toulouse Oliver receives 14 percent of the Republican vote to Clinton’s 8 percent.

Independents are as likely to be undecided than to support either Toulouse Oliver or Espinoza.

Pres race by ageIn the presidential race, Johnson actually leads Trump in one area: young voters. Twenty percent of 18-29 year olds support Johnson, besting Trump’s 15 percent. But Clinton still leads that demographic with 45 percent support. The 18-29 year old demographic is the smallest group polled.

Among their own political parties, neither candidate can clear 70 percent support. Clinton gets the support of 68 percent of Democrats, while Trump gets the support of 61 percent of Republicans. Johnson gets 22 percent of Republican voters in New Mexico.

Public Policy Polling conducted the poll by surveying 80 percent of respondents by landline phone while 20 percent were conducted via internet panels, aimed a cell phone-only voters.

Public Policy Polling conducted the poll based on questions submitted by NM Political Report. The pollster does conduct polls for Democratic campaigns, though no campaign or other group outside NM Political Report had input on this poll’s contents.

Correction: This previously said 20 percent were reached via cell phone; 20 percent were conducted via internet panels of those who are cell-phone only. We regret the error.

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