Columnists in NM Political Report
Pat Davis is the founder and publisher of NM Political Report, City Desk ABQ and the nm.news network. He is a recovering politician having served eight years as an Albuquerque City Councilor and, in another life, served as a police officer and nonprofit organizer.
With the legislature in the rearview mirror, politicos are turning their eyes towards the next big show to play out in New Mexico politics: June primaries for State House and statewide offices.
More specifically, everyone wants to know, “Who Democrats will pick to be their nominee for governor?” Well, I got a preview of internal polling Deb Haaland will be sharing with her team and supporters – and I get to share it with you.
10 months after official campaigns started and with just 10 weeks to go, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman trails Haaland 56% – 26% – a 30-point spread – with 18% still undecided among 500 likely Democratic primary voters asked to weigh in Feb. 9 – 12 (4.4% margin of error).
Regular readers will notice that this 30-point Haaland lead is still comfortably close to the 36-point lead she enjoyed when we last reported on polling in this race in September when Haaland had a 56% – 19% lead.
Responding to the polling in September, a Bregman spokesperson told me, “there has been no movement over the summer months for the Haaland campaign, even though she has spent a large amount of money on advertising.”
Since then, of course, Bregman made a big splash with his pledge to prosecute ICE agents in his jurisdiction who made arrests using unlawful force, as I wrote about in January That came with an initial $65,000 television ad campaign which has ballooned to more than $300,000 in online and television buys since.
In other words, Bregman has now also spent a lot of money on advertising and, if this polling is right, has only gained a few points.
This week, I asked the campaign to respond to the latest poll. “The dynamics of this race are changing on a daily basis,” a spokesperson told me. “People are just beginning to pay attention and we are confident that our message will resonate with all New Mexicans as Sam continues to travel the state in the coming months.”
This new polling was taken after former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima announced that he would exit the Democratic primary for an independent run.
With both polls capturing 16% and 18% undecided, it appears that almost all of Miyagishima’s likely voters, 9% in the September poll, moved to Bregman.
None of that, of course, is good news for Bregman, but there is a path hidden in the numbers. Haaland’s support level hasn’t really changed (though her campaign will note that she hasn’t really begun much campaigning on TV or outside tight Democratic circles). And she and Bregman both share almost identical unfavorable ratings from voters at 15% and 16%, respectively. But Haaland enjoys a 61% favorable rating while polled voters gave Bregman just 37%. That points to a lot of voters who have no opinion at all about Bregman.
Take into account the undecided voters and the fact that big, expensive public campaigning by both sides really hasn’t started, and it’s still anyone’s to win. And don’t forget that both candidates haven’t appeared in the same room yet, though they will at the Democrat’s state convention and, hopefully, in a real debate.
With all of that said, it’s still Deb’s race to lose and, for now, polling doesn’t show that Bregman has caught the momentum he needs to make it a competitive race.
The winner of the Democratic primary, of course, is the odds-on favorite to win the general election in November.
Do you have a tip on politics or elections you want to share? Email me: pat@newmexico.news