May 17, 2016

Clinton leads in NM in three-way race

Hillary Clinton at Valley Southwoods Freshman High School in West Des Moines, Iowa. Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore cc

A poll conducted for NM Political Report by Public Policy Polling shows that Hillary Clinton would lead a general election match-up against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump and possible Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson.

2Clinton is the likely Democratic Party nominee.

The poll, conducted this weekend, found that Clinton leads in a three-way race with 41 percent of the support of likely New Mexico voters. Trump would come in second with 33 percent and Johnson would receive 14 percent of support. Johnson is a former two-term New Mexico governor.

One reason Johnson receives so much support for a third party candidate may be the low favorable ratings for Clinton and Trump, who are both well underwater.

Clinton and Trump hold large leads among their parties, but not at levels normally seen among nominees. Clinton receives the support of 67 percent of Democrats to Trump’s 11 percent and Johnson’s 10 percent. Trump, meanwhile, receives the support of 62 percent of Republicans to Johnson’s 16 percent and Clinton’s 14 percent.

Related: Clinton, Trump have high negatives among likely New Mexico voters

Clinton narrowly leads among independents, with 31 percent to Trump’s 25 percent and Johnson’s 19 percent.

Johnson was a Republican when he served as governor.

Another area where Clinton holds a large advantage is among Hispanic voters, perhaps because of Trump’s history of inflammatory rhetoric against Mexicans and others.

Clinton receives the support of 56 percent of Hispanic voters to Trump’s 19 percent and Johnson’s 19 percent. Trump leads with white voters at 47 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent and Johnson’s 14 percent. In ethnicities listed as “other,” Clinton leads 41 percent to Trump’s 23 percent and Johnson’s 21 percent.

New Mexico’s Democratic primary takes place on June 7. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders has vowed to stay in the presidential race until the Democratic convention this July. Still, Sanders would need overwhelming, unprecedented wins in the dwindling number of contests remaining to flip the pledged delegates advantage Clinton currently holds.

Public Policy Polling conducted the poll based on questions submitted by NM Political Report. The pollster does conduct polls for Democratic campaigns, though no campaign or other group outside NM Political Report had input on this poll’s contents.

The poll surveyed 802 likely New Mexico voters. The poll was conducted from May 13 to 15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent for topline results. Crosstabs with smaller populations will have larger margins of error.