May 18, 2016

Toulouse Oliver leads Espinoza

Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver

Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver leads State Rep. Nora Espinoza in the race for Secretary of State.

Results from Public Policy Polling poll commissioned by NM Political Report

Results from Public Policy Polling poll commissioned by NM Political Report

That’s according to results from a poll of likely New Mexico voters by Public Policy Polling, commissioned by NM Political Report.

Toulouse Oliver, the lone Democrat, has the support of 43 percent of voters. Espinoza, the lone Republican, has the support of 36 percent of voters. There are still 21 percent who say they aren’t sure who they will vote for this November.

Neither candidate has any competition in either of the primaries that take place next month.

Toulouse Oliver holds a narrow 40 percent to 37 percent lead among women and a wider 47 percent to 34 percent lead among men. Democrats generally have an advantage among women voters while Republicans generally have the edge among men.

Both candidates receive 68 percent of the support from their own party. But Toulouse Oliver has the support of 18 percent of Republicans, while Espinoza gets just 10 percent of the support of Democrats. Toulouse Oliver edges Espinoza among independents by a 33 percent to 29 percent margin—leaving a whopping 38 percent of independents who are not sure who they will vote for.

One area where Espinoza does lead is among white voters. Espinoza has a 46 percent to 35 percent edge over Toulouse Oliver among this demographic. Toulouse Oliver, however, leads among Hispanics by a 53 percent to 29 percent margin and among “other” by 46 percent to 15 percent.

The fact that there is even an election for Secretary of State this year is unique. The position is up for grabs this November because of the resignation of former Secretary of State Dianna Duran.

Duran, a Republican, pleaded guilty to a number of charges related to using campaign money for personal reasons. Duran spent money at casinos and ended up spending 30 days in jail late last year through January of 2016.

Gov. Susana Martinez appointed Albuquerque city councilor Brad Winter to replace Duran. Winter said when he accepted the appointment that he would not run to keep the seat.

Public Policy Polling conducted the poll based on questions submitted by NM Political Report. The pollster does conduct polls for Democratic campaigns, though no campaign or other group outside NM Political Report had input on this poll’s contents.

The poll surveyed 802 likely New Mexico voters. The poll was conducted from May 13 to 15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent for topline results. Crosstabs with smaller populations will have larger margins of error.