June 19, 2018

DCCC poll shows close race in 2nd Congressional District

The Democratic campaign arm that seeks to flip the House released polling Tuesday that showed the race for the 2nd Congressional District in New Mexico is close.

The memo, released by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, shows Republican state Rep. Yvette Herrell leads Democratic water attorney Xochitl Torres Small 45 percent to 43 percent in the Republican-leaning district. The release also looked at polling in ten other congressional districts.

A memo, credited to DCCC chairman and New Mexico’s U.S. Representative in the 3rd Congressional District Ben Ray Luján, says the polling shows Democrats will be competitive in districts even where President Donald Trump won in 2016.

This includes New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, which Trump won 50.1 percent to 39.9 percent. Republican nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain also won the district in 2008 and 2012, though by smaller margins.

The day after the primary election earlier this month the DCCC criticized Herrell as a “political insider.”

Incumbent Steve Pearce, a Republican, is not running for reelection and is instead running for governor.

Some pundits say the race should be competitive, with both The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections listing it is “Lean Republican” while Larry Sabato says the seat is Likely Republican. Lean Republican typically means the race favors Republicans but the race will likely be competitive. Likely Republican means Republicans are favored to win, but there is a chance it could be competitive.

The DCCC released the polls on Tuesday, 20 weeks before the November midterm elections.

The poll was conducted by DCCC Analytics June 6-11 through both live cell phone and automated calls. The poll sampled 456 registered voters in the county and the margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent.