This column is a part of New Mexico Political Report‘s analysis and commentary series.
New Mexico’s 32nd governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, still has another 15 months in command of the 4th Floor of the Roundhouse, but political junkies are already lining up to pick the 33rd one.
After a few weeks of kickoff rallies and fundraisers, the three declared candidates seeking the Democratic nomination have been regularly rolling out new endorsements and policy statements in between local party potlucks and Labor Day cookouts.
Former U.S. Interior Secretary and Laguna Pueblo member Deb Haaland came out early with endorsements from the Santo Domingo, Jemez and Picuris pueblos as well as several grass roots Native voting groups but it was the back-to-back endorsements from Sandia Pueblo and the Jicarilla Apache Nation for Bernaillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman over Haaland or former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima that caused politicos to question assumptions about how this race might go.
That’s why last month’s rumors that one of the candidates was sizing up the race with a new poll got my attention.
It turns out the poll was an internal one from the Haaland campaign and she is probably happy with the result (which is why it has been quietly making the rounds among her donors and supporters, one of whom was kind enough to share with me).
The mid-August poll found that she still enjoys a sizable and commanding lead over Bregman with likely primary voters. Among 355 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed in mid-August, a majority (55%) say they’re supporting Haaland, giving her a 36-point lead over Bregman (19%) and a 46-point lead over Ken Miyagishima, a former Las Cruces mayor (9%). 16% say they are undecided.
When I reached out to the Haaland campaign, spokesperson Hannah Menchhoff told me, “New Mexicans know Deb is the fighter we need to take on crime, invest in education, and tackle rising prices from Trump’s tariffs. That’s why she’s visited all 33 counties already and is working to earn every vote.”
I also asked Bregman spokesperson Joannie Griffin what they think of those numbers.
“The results today are virtually the same as when we launched five months ago,” she said.
“Which means there has been no movement over the summer months for the Haaland campaign, even though she has spent a large amount of money on advertising. We are confident that as the people of New Mexico get to know Sam and his policies, they will respond strongly to our message.”