By Pat Davis, nm.news — With less than 90 days until New Mexico chooses a new governor, the first public polling of the 2026 gubernatorial race shows that former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland is enjoying a commanding 17-percentage-point lead over former Rio Rancho Mayor Greg Hull in early August.
This story was originally published at New Mexico Political Report, a nonprofit news service covering politics and policy in the Land of Enchantment. Learn more and support our work at nmreports.org
The statewide survey of registered voters sampled 800 New Mexican registered voters online in English and Spanish between July 22 and August 7, 2026. It reveals that 41% of registered voters plan to cast their ballots for Haaland, compared to 24% for Hull, while 3% support another candidate or a write-in option. Neither candidate has earned the critical 50% of public support, while 27% of respondents remain undecided, and 4% do not plan to vote. The polling firm, BSP Research, has extensive experience polling New Mexico and Latino political issues. Despite being co-founded by a Democratic-leaning pollster, America First Insight, a conservative polling watchdog, graded BSP “A++” for accuracy.
Consistent with recent statewide electoral trends, Haaland, the Democrat, performs better in the state’s more liberal urban areas while Hull, the Republican, performs better in conservative rural counties. “Haaland currently enjoys a robust 26% advantage in the Albuquerque Metro/Bernalillo County, with a much tighter 12% gap between Haaland and Hull across the rest of the state,” the polling firm BSP Research explained. “Hull performs the best among registered voters 51 years of age and older and those making more than $80,000 annually.” Haaland also does better among the state’s Hispanic population with a 41% to 16% lead over Hull.
Party lines remain highly solidified, with Haaland drawing 77% of self-identified Democrats and Hull pulling 74% of self-identified Republicans. Crucially, nearly half (49%) of Independents remain undecided, though Haaland holds a modest 19% to 15% advantage among those who have already made up their minds. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%
Respondents roughly match the state’s partisan registration with 43% of respondents self-identify as Democrats, 33% Republican, and 25% Independent or Decline to State, according to the polling firm BSP. The poll was conducted by Dr. Gabriel Sanchez, a UNM professor of political science whose research focuses on Latino political attitudes.