Data indicates Vice President Kamala Harris could excite the Democratic base around the issue of abortion in a way that President Joe Biden struggled to get the message across.
Harris, the presumptive nominee for the Democratic ticket for president, has been the voice for reproductive rights under the Biden administration. KFF, a health policy research organization, published a survey this week indicating that a majority, 82 percent, of Democratic women voters trust Harris to speak on the issue of abortion.
Ashley Kirzinger, director of survey methodology and associate director of public opinion and survey research for KFF, told NM Political Report that researchers are now watching to see if Harris’ ability to talk about reproductive rights can translate into motivating a larger share of women Democratic voters to vote for her because they see the issue of abortion as important.
Kirzinger said that a takeaway from KFF’s polling, conducted between May 23 and June 5, was that large numbers of Democratic women were reporting that they did not feel motivated by the November general election.
“They were slightly more motivated in states where abortion is on the ballot, suggesting the issue of reproductive rights and abortion is motivating in a way that President Biden was not,” Kirzinger said.
She said that, based on what KFF research has shown, about 12 or 13 percent of Democratic women said abortion was the most important issue they were voting on in November. The issue plays a small role in voting decisions but plays a big role in what campaigns talk about and are asked about, Kirzinger said.
“It’ll be interesting to see, as Harris talks about it frequently, whether it becomes a more important issue for Democratic voters,” Kirzinger said.
Another study by KFF shows that Republican women voters tend to be focused on certain issues and are willing to vote for President Donald Trump regardless of his characteristics and flaws. But for Democratic women, they tend to be more likely to vote based on the candidate’s characteristics than on the issues, Kirzinger said.
Kirzinger said that meant that Democratic women were not likely to vote for Trump because of his characteristics but that it was more of a comment on Biden.
“I think what we’re seeing now is a lot of enthusiasm among Democrats for Harris,” Kirzinger said.
She said a Harris campaign would be “a totally different ball game, not Biden 2.0.” She said it will be interesting to watch to see what groups will now be more motivated to vote and what factors and what issues the candidates will be talking about.
“It’s a whole different campaign than we’ve seen in the last couple of months. I expect abortion to be a big part of that,” Kirzinger said.
Reproductive rights groups say that one reason why the winner of the November election will be important is because the next president will appoint federal district judges and, possibly, a Supreme Court justice during the next four-year term.
In one of KFF’s studies conducted earlier this spring, it found that women, both Democrats and Republicans, were frustrated and anxious over the upcoming election but that women Democrats were more so.
Kirzinger said that prior to Harris becoming the presumptive nominee for Democrats for president, women Democratic voters were “pretty frustrated about their options.”
“We asked why they were frustrated. It was mostly they really struggled with Biden’s age and that was before the debate performance,” Kirzinger said.
Kirzinger said Harris has “a whole different energy” than Biden did when campaigning. But, she said voters could wind up frustrated for other reasons as the campaign draws closer to November due to a very condensed campaign period and the attack ads that will emerge trying to sway voters against Harris.
Kirzinger said the Democratic base is made up of women voters, but race and ethnicity also play a role. Black women, both single and married, are a strong part of the Democratic voter base but white suburban women are more divided.
Kirzinger said that, historically, Hispanic voters have turned out for Democratic candidates but KFF has found in a recent survey that Hispanic women voters were “largely dissatisfied, anxious and frustrated, and that’s especially true of younger groups of Hispanic women.”
Kirzinger said that women are often the financial deciders for a family, often responsible for paying bills and household expenses, so many are focused this year on the economy and inflation.
But, Kirzinger said that Harris appears to be generating enthusiasm.
Kirzinger said the election will likely be decided by a handful of swing states. One of those, Arizona, will likely have a ballot measure about abortion, which could give Harris an edge with voters there because that tends to motivate Democratic voters more than Republican voters.
“Biden as a messenger on abortion wasn’t that effective for Democrats and didn’t seem that persuasive on the campaign trail. So that’s why he had Harris do the brunt of that messaging on that. If she can go in those [swing] states at rallies and reproductive health is up front and center in her talk, it could be motivating Democrats in a way we hadn’t seen Biden capitalize on,” Kirzinger said.