Projections show decline in state revenue

During September’s special legislative session, lawmakers agreed on fixes that added about $23 million in revenue. That was a start, but not nearly enough to solve the state’s budget crisis. On Wednesday, state legislators received little good news about the state’s revenue stream during a committee meeting. Even with that help, New Mexico’s bean counters […]

Projections show decline in state revenue

During September’s special legislative session, lawmakers agreed on fixes that added about $23 million in revenue. That was a start, but not nearly enough to solve the state’s budget crisis.

On Wednesday, state legislators received little good news about the state’s revenue stream during a committee meeting.

Even with that help, New Mexico’s bean counters dropped their revenue projections for the current fiscal year from previous estimates by more than $130 million. The state’s current fiscal year began in July and ends next June.

And things don’t look much better for the following fiscal year, which runs from July 2017 to June 2018. State officials have now dropped revenue estimates for that period by another $127 million.

“We clearly need to make significant changes to how we administer taxes in this state,” state Rep. Jason Harper, R-Rio Rancho and chair of the Revenue Stabilization and Tax Policy Committee, said at a committee meeting in response to the new projections.

The lowered revenue estimates, which come from the state’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, come at a time when the state is facing a current budget shortfall of $69 million. Projections for next year’s state budget have not yet been made, but another large budget deficit is expected.

State officials have blamed low oil and gas prices for New Mexico’s recent budget shortfall. They also pointed fingers toward the healthcare industry, which is one of New Mexico’s biggest employers, but remains, one state official said “largely untaxed.”

New Mexico’s unemployment rate of 6.7 percent, one of the highest in the nation, also doesn’t help.

“New Mexicans are working fewer and fewer hours,” Frank Crociata, director of tax policy at the state Taxation and Revenue Department, said while presenting the numbers. That means fewer people paying into the state tax system.

Mining jobs continue to decline, as do jobs in lodging, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Overall, the October employment numbers for New Mexico were down 0.3 percent from one year ago, according to numbers from the state Workforce Solutions Department. That marks a 2,900 fewer jobs across the state then exactly one year before

One presenter at the committee meeting spoke of an apparent silver lining: Forecasters don’t see a recession coming anytime soon.

“We are in one of the largest expansion periods in history,” Jon Clark, an economist with the Legislative Finance Committee, said at the hearing.

He was referring to the months of consecutive overall nationwide job growth that, albeit small and sluggishly, has occurred since early 2010. New Mexico has fared worse than most states with slower job growth and hasn’t fully recovered from the recession.

Historically, this means that a recession should be coming soon. But economic forecasters with IHS Global Insight, which the state uses for projections, see “no signs of an overheating economy or substantial impending shocks,” according to the latest written state Consensus Revenue Estimate.

Yet Michael O’Donnell, a research scientist at the University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research, told NM Political Report last week IHS economists did not include a so-called “Trump factor” into their recent forecasts.

President-elect Donald Trump’s ambiguous proposals to overhaul the country’s international trade policies, for example, amount to what O’Donnell called “a high degree of uncertainty” in the state’s economic future.

The state’s general fund reserves, which lawmakers often tap when faced with budget difficulties, are also in bad shape. General fund reserves, which act as kind of a savings  account for the state, are in the red at negative-1 percent of recurring, or sustainable, appropriations that the state makes every year to fund things like highways and schools.

Generally, lawmakers try to keep reserves at 10 percent of state spending each year.

In total, the state is estimated to bring in  $5.6 billion during the current fiscal year while estimates for the next fiscal year total $5.9 billion in revenue.

Harper is expected to present ideas for overhauling New Mexico’s gross receipts tax code to help the revenue problems to the same committee on Friday.

We're ad free

That means that we rely on support from readers like you. Help us keep reporting on the most important New Mexico Stories by donating today.

Related

Former LFC chair John Arthur Smith dies

Former LFC chair John Arthur Smith dies

Longtime powerful state senator John Arthur Smith, a conservative Democrat who wielded a large amount of power around the state budget for years, died…
How Native families are particularly impacted by food insecurity

How Native families are particularly impacted by food insecurity

One in five children in New Mexico and one in seven people in the state experience food insecurity, according to a report presented to…
New Mexico in critical nursing shortage

New Mexico in critical nursing shortage

With 8,800 nurse positions posted for hiring in New Mexico, hospital leadership told the Legislative Health and Human Services Committee on Tuesday that access…
SCOTUS rejects attempt to pause implementation of federal methane rule

SCOTUS rejects attempt to pause implementation of federal methane rule

The U.S. Supreme Court rejected an attempt to delay the implementation of a federal rule intended to curb methane emissions from oil and gas…
Air Force extends comment period on low-altitude flights in the Gila area

Air Force extends comment period on low-altitude flights in the Gila area

Following requests from members of New Mexico’s congressional delegation, the U.S. Air Force has extended the comment period on a proposal to increase low-altitude…
PRC raises community solar cap by 300 megawatts

PRC raises community solar cap by 300 megawatts

State regulators are increasing the amount of community solar that can come online in New Mexico. During its Thursday meeting, the New Mexico Public…
MLG speaks about education during oil, gas industry meeting

MLG speaks about education during oil, gas industry meeting

New Mexico produces the second highest amount of oil and gas in the country. The taxes from oil and gas production provide funding for…
Early childhood summit convened to discuss future of program

Early childhood summit convened to discuss future of program

About 200 people from tribal governors to legislators to advocates and teachers gathered at Bishop’s Lodge to discuss Early Childhood Education’s future in New…
Stansbury outlines funding secured for early childhood and youth services programs

Stansbury outlines funding secured for early childhood and youth services programs

U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury secured $8.3 million for childhood development and youth services in the 1st congressional district through federal community project funding. Stansbury,…
Heinrich introduces legislation to address affordable housing

Heinrich introduces legislation to address affordable housing

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-New Mexico, introduced legislation in the Senate on Monday that would provide tax credits to incentivize new investments and additional…
New Mexico in critical nursing shortage

New Mexico in critical nursing shortage

With 8,800 nurse positions posted for hiring in New Mexico, hospital leadership told the Legislative Health and Human Services Committee on Tuesday that access…
As rhetoric around undocumented workers heats up, new report shows their tax contribution

As rhetoric around undocumented workers heats up, new report shows their tax contribution

A nonprofit group released data showing how much taxes migrants pay in the U.S. as rhetoric on immigration grows more prominent just months from…
Heinrich helps introduce resolution in response to death of Amber Nicole Thurman

Heinrich helps introduce resolution in response to death of Amber Nicole Thurman

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich helped to introduce a resolution on Tuesday in the Senate that every patient has the basic right to emergency health…
Project 2025: How a consolidation of federal power could ban abortion

Project 2025: How a consolidation of federal power could ban abortion

If Project 2025 becomes federal policy next year, it would upend abortion rights and reproductive healthcare through a reshaping of and consolidation of power…
New abortion clinic in Las Cruces expected to provide more abortion training

New abortion clinic in Las Cruces expected to provide more abortion training

One of the consequences of the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision is the lack of abortion care training for medical residents training to become…
New Mexico in critical nursing shortage

New Mexico in critical nursing shortage

With 8,800 nurse positions posted for hiring in New Mexico, hospital leadership told the Legislative Health and Human Services Committee on Tuesday that access…
Heinrich helps introduce resolution in response to death of Amber Nicole Thurman

Heinrich helps introduce resolution in response to death of Amber Nicole Thurman

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich helped to introduce a resolution on Tuesday in the Senate that every patient has the basic right to emergency health…
WNMU: Grow your own rural healthcare providers pipeline 

WNMU: Grow your own rural healthcare providers pipeline 

Western New Mexico University wants to create a pipeline of programs with a rural healthcare focus to try to address the medical provider shortage…
Poll: Dem holds 9 point lead in swing district race

Poll: Dem holds 9 point lead in swing district race

A poll finds that the Democratic incumbent has a significant lead in the race for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, considered a swing district…
Oil-and-gas giant gives big to dark money group

Oil-and-gas giant gives big to dark money group

By Trip Jennings, New Mexico In Depth Chevron Corporation gave the single largest contribution to a dark money group that attempted but failed to…
Survey shows candidates are for legislative reform, unsure about ranked choice voting

Survey shows candidates are for legislative reform, unsure about ranked choice voting

A survey by four nonprofit organizations showed that candidates for state and federal office support pro-democracy and government reform, according to those groups. Common…
Poll: Dem holds 9 point lead in swing district race

Poll: Dem holds 9 point lead in swing district race

A poll finds that the Democratic incumbent has a significant lead in the race for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, considered a swing district…
Former LFC chair John Arthur Smith dies

Former LFC chair John Arthur Smith dies

Longtime powerful state senator John Arthur Smith, a conservative Democrat who wielded a large amount of power around the state budget for years, died…
Politics newsletter: High court gift ban and buprenorphine

Politics newsletter: High court gift ban and buprenorphine

Hello fellow political junkies! Currently, Supreme Court justices do not have the same gift restrictions that members of Congress and other federal officials, including…

GET INVOLVED

© 2023 New Mexico Political Report