June 26, 2018

Poll: Lujan Grisham leads Pearce

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A new poll shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham has a double-digit lead in the gubernatorial election.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KOB-TV, found Lujan Grisham led Republican nominee Steve Pearce 51 percent to 38 percent, with 3 percent backing Libertarian candidate Bob Walsh.

The poll asked likely voters who they would vote for if the election were held today.

Lujan Grisham leads both among women—55 percent to 36 percent over Pearce—and men—47 percent to 30 percent over Pearce. The poll shows Walsh with the support of 5 percent of men and 2 percent of women.

Lujan Grisham also leads among all age ranges, with the largest advantage among voters between the ages of 18 and 34—50 percent to 27 percent over Pearce, while Walsh brings in 8 percent.

The poll shows the Republican and Democratic nominees with a similar amount of support from their own party, with Pearce pulling in 79 percent of registered Republicans and 85 percent of those who consider themselves affiliated with Republicans. Lujan Grisham has the support of 77 percent of registered Democrats and 89 percent of those who consider themselves affiliated with Democrats.

Lujan Grisham leads among those who are decline-to-state voters, 42 percent to 32 percent over Pearce with Walsh at 12 percent. Lujan Grisham and Pearce are tied at 36 percent among those who consider themselves affiliated with independents, while Walsh gets the support of 11 percent.

A plurality of voters, 26 percent, said education is the most important issue in determining their vote, while 21 percent said the same about immigration, 19 percent about jobs and 17 percent crime.

The Pearce campaign disputed the results of the poll.

“This poll projects a likely electorate significantly larger than even a Presidential election, and almost double the turnout of the last gubernatorial election,” Pearce campaign pollster B.J. Martino, a partner at the Repulbican pollster The Tarrance Group, said. “We do not believe that is possible.”

The poll surveyed 535 likely voters between June 19 and June 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points. The poll surveyed 59 percent through a landline and 41 percent through a smartphone questionnaire.

Update: Added a comment from Pearce’s campaign.