August 24, 2018

More polls in the U.S. Senate race

The flood of U.S. Senate polls since Gary Johnson entered the race continued this week.

Two new partisan polls show different visions of the U.S. Senate race, but both show the incumbent leading while the insurgent Libertarian candidate trails in third place.

One newly-released poll by Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research for The Majority Institute, an organization that seeks to elect Democrats to the U.S. Senate, showed Heinrich with the support of 48 percent of likely voters, compared to 33 percent for Republican Mick Rich and 17 percent for Johnson, a former governor.

The poll was conducted in early August, before Johnson formally entered the race.

Another poll released before Johnson formally entered the race showed the same order.

That poll, conducted for the Mick Rich campaign, showed a closer race between Heinrich and Rich, with Heinrich leading 41 percent to 34 percent, while Johnson trailed at 19 percent.

That poll was conducted by The Tarrance Group, a Republican pollster, for the Rich campaign.

A previously-released poll conducted by Emerson College showed Johnson in second place. That poll was conducted last week and is the most recent independent poll in the race.

There are differences beyond the time in the field. The GQRR poll asked likely voters for their preference, while the Emerson poll only questioned registered voters.

Both the GQRR and Tarrance Group polls used live-interviews, which allows the pollster to call cell phones, while the Emerson poll used IVR technology to call landlines and used online polls to contact cell-phone only voters.

And while the Emerson poll was not conducted by any group with interest in the race, the GQRR poll was conducted for a progressive group that backs Democratic candidates. These polls are not necessarily less accurate, but the groups will not release the polls unless they show favorable news for the candidate.

GQRR interviewed 500 likely general election voters in New Mexico between Aug. 2 and 5, 2018. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points.

The Tarrance Group poll questioned 500 likely voters between July 31 and Aug. 2 and has a +/- 4.5 percent margin of error.