News

ABQ Journal poll: Biden, Luján with healthy leads, while southern NM congressional race remains close

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The final Albuquerque Journal poll ahead of the elections showed large leads for Democrats in the race for president and U.S. Senate, as well as two of the three U.S. House races—but one House race is extremely close. The poll, conducted by Research and Polling, found a lead of 12 percentage points for Democratic candidate Joe Biden over incumbent Republican Donald Trump for president, 54 percent to 42 percent among those who are likely to vote or who have already voted. Most analysts have listed New Mexico as a safely or likely Democratic state on the presidential level. Democrats have won New Mexico’s five electoral votes in the last three presidential elections. The Journal reported Biden had large leads among women, Hispanic voters and moderates in addition to liberals.

2020 elections

Poll: Biden, Luján lead in New Mexico after primaries

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A new poll, commissioned by NM Political Report and conducted by Public Policy Polling, found that Democrats lead in the races for U.S. Senate and president in the state and that voters in the state approve of Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic more than they do of President Donald Trump’s. Trump’s campaign has said they will target New Mexico as a potential pickup in his reelection effort, but polling across the country in recent weeks has shown presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a lead over the incumbent in key swing states. The poll found that Biden leads Trump 53 percent to 39 percent in New Mexico, with 8 percent unsure. Biden leads among Democrats, 80 percent to 14 percent, while Trump leads among Republicans, 85 percent to 12 percent. But Biden has a large lead among independents, 52 percent to Trump’s 30 percent, with 18 percent not sure. 

Biden has a large lead among Hispanic or Latino voters, 68 percent to 22 percent, while Trump leads among white voters, 53 percent to 41 percent.

Quick Reads

Poll: Most New Mexicans approve of Lujan Grisham’s COVID-19 response

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A new poll showed that a majority of New Mexicans approve of the way Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is handling the COVID-19 crisis. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling for The Majority Institute, a progressive organization, showed that 62 percent of New Mexicans approve of how she is handling the  pandemic, compared to 26 percent who disapprove. 

The approval is much higher than that of President Donald Trump; the poll found that 40 percent of New Mexicans approved of how he is handling the COVID-19 crisis, compared to 55 percent who disapprove. Lujan Grisham took action earlier than many governors, and aggressively sought to expand testing capacity in the state. The New York Times wrote a profile about New Mexico’s response and how it has avoided overwhelming the health care system in the state. Still, Republicans have criticized the stay-at-home order.

Quick Reads

Poll: In NM, Sanders/Biden at top of Dem primary, top Dems lead Trump

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A new poll of New Mexico voters shows a two-way battle among Democrats seeking support for the Democratic nomination in the state—while showing that top-tier Democratic names each outpace President Donald Trump in the general election. The poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows that Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has the support of 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 27 percent. They were both far ahead of entrepreneur Andrew Yang (10 percent), Massachusetts U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (8 percent) and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7 percent). No other candidate received the support of more than 3 percent of voters. New Mexico’s primary is on June 2, very late in the process; only the U.S. Virgin Islands’ June 6 Caucus is later. 

But the poll indicates whichever Democrat emerges from the primary has a head start on winning New Mexico’s five electoral votes in November.

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Trump approval ratings in NM remain low, even as his campaign says they might target state in 2020

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Even as Donald Trump’s campaign says it may target New Mexico in 2020, his approval in the state remains very low. That’s according to the latest polling from Morning Consult, which releases the presidential approval ratings at the state level each month. This month, Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at just 41 percent, while 56 percent disapprove of his job performance. Trump’s approval rating in New Mexico was 52 percent at the beginning of 2017 and peaked at 59 percent in April of 2017. But his approval rating has been lower than his disapproval rating in every poll since June of 2017.

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First public approval ratings show Lujan Grisham above water, but many have no opinion

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A new poll is the first to show Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s approval rating. And while the number of registered New Mexico voters who approve of her job performance outnumber those who do not approve, nearly one-third of voters had no opinion. The poll by Morning Consult was conducted in the first three months of Lujan Grisham’s time in office and found that 41 percent of voters approved of her job performance while 33 percent disapproved. Another 28 percent declined to say how they felt or had no opinion. Lujan Grisham’s approval rating is higher than Susana Martinez’s approval rating when she left office.

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Poll: Trump’s approval rating in NM below 40 percent in 2018

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New Mexico is one of 16 states that gave Donald Trump an approval rating of below 40 percent in 2018 according to the most recent poll by Gallup. The nationwide poll, conducted throughout 2018 as part of Gallup’s tracking poll, found that just 38 percent of New Mexico voters approved of Trump’s job performance as president, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. The numbers were actually a slight improvement from 2017, when Trump’s approval rating in New Mexico stood at 25 percent, compared to 59 percent disapproval. Nationwide, West Virginia gave Trump his highest approval ratings in 2018, at 62 percent. His lowest approval rating was Hawaii, at just 26 percent.

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Poll: Low approval ratings for Martinez when she left office

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Gov. Susana Martinez left office with low approval ratings, according to Morning Consult.

Meanwhile, both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators’ approval ratings remained over 40 percent, with a high amount of voters with no opinion. The pollster found Martinez’s approval rating among all registered voters in her final three months in office was just 35 percent, while 49 percent disapproved of the Republican’s job performance. That was the ninth-highest disapproval rating among all 50 governors in the same time period. In her final year in office, Martinez’s approval rating remained in the mid-30 percent range. Senators

Martin Heinrich easily won re-election to the U.S. Senate in a three-way race in November, defeating Republican Mick Rich and Libertarian, and former New Mexico governor, Gary Johnson.

2018 elections

Poll shows Dems lead in most statewide races

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A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor. The ten point lead is an increase from the 7 percent race found in a September poll. The same poll found incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, leading in the three-way race against former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian, and contractor Mick Rich, a Republican. Heinrich is 20 points ahead of Rich and almost 40 ahead of Johnson.

Elections

Emerson poll: Lujan Grisham leads by 9, Heinrich by 16

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A new poll shows good news for Democrats in New Mexico’s two top statewide races and  a close race for a hard-fought congressional race in southern New Mexico. Emerson College released their second round of polling of likely voters in New Mexico, and the poll showed Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leading Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 44 percent in the gubernatorial race. The two are involved in an expensive race that has included millions of dollars spent on TV ads from both sides in the hopes of replacing Susana Martinez as governor. Martinez, a Republican, cannot run for a third consecutive term. A previous Emerson College poll conducted in August showed Lujan Grisham leading Steve Pearce 42 percent to 40 percent.