2018 elections

Poll shows Dems lead in most statewide races

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A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor. The ten point lead is an increase from the 7 percent race found in a September poll. The same poll found incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, leading in the three-way race against former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian, and contractor Mick Rich, a Republican. Heinrich is 20 points ahead of Rich and almost 40 ahead of Johnson.

Elections

Poll: Herrell leads by one point in CD2 clash

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The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows just how close the 2nd Congressional District race remains. The poll found that Republican state Rep. Yvette Herrell leads her Democratic opponent, water attorney Xochitl Torres Small, 45 percent to 44 percent, with still 11 percent undecided. Nate Cohn of the New York Times, who is part of the congressional polling project for the newspaper, says it was their closest result yet. The poll notes that the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent means each candidate’s true numbers could be that much in either direction. Spending in the district, which is in the millions by outside groups, shows they also believe the race is one of dozens in the nation that will determine who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

Quick Reads

Poll: Martinez approval rating remains low; Senators’ tick up

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Susana Martinez will be leaving office in three months, and she remains unpopular among New Mexico voters according to a recent poll. Meanwhile, the state’s two U.S. Senators still have more support than opposition, but their approval ratings remain under 50 percent. Martinez’s approval rating stand at 36 percent among registered New Mexico voters according to Morning Consult, while her disapproval rating is at 54 percent. This is barely changed from numbers released in July. The Republican governor’s disapproval rating remains sixth-highest among all governors.

2018 elections

Lujan Grisham internal poll shows 8 point lead over Pearce

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An internal poll conducted for the Michelle Lujan Grisham campaign shows she leads Steve Pearce in the gubernatorial race by eight percentage points. The poll, by Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, shows Lujan Grisham, the Democratic nominee, currently leads 52 percent to 44 percent. The polling memo says this is an increase from a five-point lead in June, after the primary. The memo says Lujan Grisham “is well positioned to be New Mexico’s next Governor.”

The Pearce campaign called it an “invented poll…designed to calm the panic.”

Pearce campaign spokesman Kevin Sheridan also referred to an outside ad, not from the Lujan Grisham campaign that KOAT-TV pulled down for being false, and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver reinstating straight-ticket voting. Republicans and Libertarians filed a lawsuit to stop her from making the change.

2018 election

More polls in the U.S. Senate race

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The flood of U.S. Senate polls since Gary Johnson entered the race continued this week. Two new partisan polls show different visions of the U.S. Senate race, but both show the incumbent leading while the insurgent Libertarian candidate trails in third place. One newly-released poll by Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research for The Majority Institute, an organization that seeks to elect Democrats to the U.S. Senate, showed Heinrich with the support of 48 percent of likely voters, compared to 33 percent for Republican Mick Rich and 17 percent for Johnson, a former governor. The poll was conducted in early August, before Johnson formally entered the race. Another poll released before Johnson formally entered the race showed the same order.

Border Wall

Poll: Close governor’s race, Johnson in 2nd in Senate race

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The race for New Mexico governor is tight, while the incumbent Democratic U.S. senator holds a sizeable lead over his two challengers, according to a new poll from Emerson College. The poll, conducted last week, via calls to landlines and online surveys and released Monday morning, shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham with a two point lead over Republican nominee Steve Pearce, 42 percent to 40 percent. The poll shows 18 percent of voters polled are still undecided. The poll is of registered voters. Both candidates are leaving their respective congressional seats to run for governor.

Donald Trump

Trump’s approval rating in NM continues to fall

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New Mexico voters have soured on President Donald Trump, bringing his already-low statewide approval rating down below 40 percent in January. That’s according to numbers from pollster Morning Consult.

Pollsters found that in January 2017, when he was inaugurated, 52 percent of New Mexico voters approved of Trump’s job performance. But just one year into his four-year term, that number plummeted to 39 percent. His disapproval rating in the state also increased, from 35 percent in 2017 to 58 percent in 2018. Nationwide, however, his approval rating rose.

Susana Martinez

Martinez approval ratings continue to fall

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Gov. Susana Martinez’s approval rating remained among the worst in the nation at the end of 2017, according to a recent poll. The poll finds that 57 percent of New Mexico voters disapprove of her job performance, compared to just 33 percent who approve. That disapproval number is the fifth-worst in the nation and two of the governors below her have since left office. Her approval rating, meanwhile, is seventh-worst among all governors polled. Her job approval ratings in the last three months of 2017 also showed a drop from the previous ratings, released in October of last year.

Polling

More New Mexicans approve of Heinrich, Udall’s job performance than disapprove

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Almost half of New Mexicans approve of the way their U.S. Senators are doing their jobs, while less than a third disapprove. That’s according to the latest Morning Consult approval ratings. The poll conducted in late 2017 found that 49 percent of New Mexico registered voters approve of Tom Udall’s job performance, while 29 percent disapproved and 2 percent had no opinion. Martin Heinrich’s approval rating sat at 46 percent, while 29 percent disapproved and 24 percent had no opinion. The numbers do not always add up to 100 percent because of rounding.

Donald Trump

Poll: Trump’s approval rating underwater in NM

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President Donald Trump’s approval rating in New Mexico is underwater, a big drop from when  he first entered office in January and more New Mexicans approved of his job performance. Those numbers come from Morning Consult, which released the presidential approval ratings for each of the 50 states Tuesday. In January, 52 percent of voters approved of Trump, while 35 percent disapproved. In September, that number saw a big shift, with 52 percent disapproving of his job performance and 43 percent approving. New Mexico’s equaled nationwide numbers with 52 percent disapproving and 43 percent approving of Trump’s job performance in September.