KOB-TV

Polls: Lujan Grisham leads by high single digits in reelection campaign; Dems lead in other key races

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Two polls in the final days of the gubernatorial campaign show incumbent Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham with a lead over her Republican challenger, Mark Ronchetti. The Albuquerque Journal’s poll, conducted by Research & Polling, Inc. and long considered the best public polling in New Mexico, showed a lead of 8 points for Lujan Grisham. The poll showed Lujan Grisham with 50 percent, Ronchetti with 42 percent and Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie with 3 percent. Another 4 percent were undecided in the final days of the election. Meanwhile, a poll for KOB-TV, conducted by SurveyUSA, found a 7 point lead for Lujan Grisham.

Abortion

Poll shows majority of NM voters support abortion rights

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New Mexico voters indicated that they support abortion rights, including New Mexico’s repeal of an antiquated abortion law. In a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report, 55 percent of likely voters said they supported the repeal of the law that allowed abortion to remain legal in New Mexico despite the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision this summer that overturned Roe v. Wade. Another 33 percent said they opposed it and 11 percent said that they were not sure. This is similar to the results in June, before the Supreme Court decided Dobbs. In that poll, 53 percent said they would support such a repeal and 36 percent said they would oppose it.

COVID-19

Voters split on Biden, Lujan Grisham’s handling of COVID

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New Mexico likely voters are evenly split on Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while voters are virtually split on the same question about President Joe Biden. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report found that 48 percent of voters approved and an equal number disapproved of what Lujan Grisham did during the COVID-19 pandemic. The remaining 4 percent were not sure. For Biden 46 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved, while 7 percent were not sure. There have been virtually no restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID for months.

2022 elections

Democrats continue to lead in AG, SOS races

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Democrats lead in the key statewide races for attorney general and secretary of state according to a NM Political Report poll conducted by Public Policy Polling. The closer of the two races is the open race for attorney general. The poll find Democrat Raúl Torrez, the current 2nd Judicial District Attorney, leads former  special assistant U.S. Attorney Jeremy Gay, a Republican, 45 percent to 37 percent, with 18 percent who said they are not sure. This is almost identical to the results of a June NM Political Report poll, when Torrez led 44 percent to 37 percent. The seat is open because incumbent Democrat Hector Balderas is term-limited and cannot run for a third consecutive term.

2022 elections

Majority of voters back tapping Land Grant Permanent Fund

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A high-profile constitutional amendment appears on its way to an easy victory, with nearly twice as many voters saying they support it than oppose it. The proposal to tap an additional 1.25 percent from the state’s Land Grant Permanent Fund to fund early childhood education and increase public school funding has the support of 51 percent of voters, while just 26 percent say they oppose the proposal. Another 23 percent say they are not sure of how they will vote. The proposal is years in the making, after being blocked by a key Senate committee nearly every year for a decade. The Legislature passed the proposed constitutional amendment last year, sending it to voters.

Polling

Poll: Lujan Grisham leads governor’s race by 8 points

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Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham continues to lead the gubernatorial race, with the support of just under 50 percent of likely voters. That’s according to a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report. 

The poll found that Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, leads Republican challenger Mark Ronchetti 48 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie getting the support of 7 percent. Another 6 percent are undecided. Related: See Michelle Lujan Grisham’s approval rating

This is an increase in the gap between the two top contenders from a June NM Political Report poll which showed Lujan Grisham leading with 45 percent of supporters to 42 percent for Ronchetti and 9 percent for Bedonie. The poll is slightly higher than the average of polls at Real Clear Politics which shows Lujan Grisham leading by 6.7 points.

2018 elections

Poll shows Dems lead in most statewide races

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A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor. The ten point lead is an increase from the 7 percent race found in a September poll. The same poll found incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, leading in the three-way race against former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian, and contractor Mick Rich, a Republican. Heinrich is 20 points ahead of Rich and almost 40 ahead of Johnson.

Elections

Poll: Herrell leads by one point in CD2 clash

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The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows just how close the 2nd Congressional District race remains. The poll found that Republican state Rep. Yvette Herrell leads her Democratic opponent, water attorney Xochitl Torres Small, 45 percent to 44 percent, with still 11 percent undecided. Nate Cohn of the New York Times, who is part of the congressional polling project for the newspaper, says it was their closest result yet. The poll notes that the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent means each candidate’s true numbers could be that much in either direction. Spending in the district, which is in the millions by outside groups, shows they also believe the race is one of dozens in the nation that will determine who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

Quick Reads

Poll: Martinez approval rating remains low; Senators’ tick up

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Susana Martinez will be leaving office in three months, and she remains unpopular among New Mexico voters according to a recent poll. Meanwhile, the state’s two U.S. Senators still have more support than opposition, but their approval ratings remain under 50 percent. Martinez’s approval rating stand at 36 percent among registered New Mexico voters according to Morning Consult, while her disapproval rating is at 54 percent. This is barely changed from numbers released in July. The Republican governor’s disapproval rating remains sixth-highest among all governors.

2018 elections

Lujan Grisham internal poll shows 8 point lead over Pearce

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An internal poll conducted for the Michelle Lujan Grisham campaign shows she leads Steve Pearce in the gubernatorial race by eight percentage points. The poll, by Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, shows Lujan Grisham, the Democratic nominee, currently leads 52 percent to 44 percent. The polling memo says this is an increase from a five-point lead in June, after the primary. The memo says Lujan Grisham “is well positioned to be New Mexico’s next Governor.”

The Pearce campaign called it an “invented poll…designed to calm the panic.”

Pearce campaign spokesman Kevin Sheridan also referred to an outside ad, not from the Lujan Grisham campaign that KOAT-TV pulled down for being false, and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver reinstating straight-ticket voting. Republicans and Libertarians filed a lawsuit to stop her from making the change.