September 15, 2022

Poll: Lujan Grisham leads Ronchetti by 5 points

The second public poll in as many days showed a lead for incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham—but smaller than the poll released earlier in the week.

The poll was conducted by Emerson College for The Hill, which is owned by the same company that owns KRQE-TV.

The Emerson College poll found a five percent lead for Lujan Grisham over Republican Mark Ronchetti, 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The poll did not name Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie, who will appear on the ballot, though 3 percent said they would vote for “someone else.” Another 5 percent were undecided.

“New Mexico Hispanic voters support Lujan Grisham over Ronchetti by a ten point margin, 50 percent to 40 percent; the Governor’s lead decreases to two points among White voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said in the polling memo. “In addition, Lujan Grisham holds a 9-point lead among women voters, whereas among men, the gubernatorial election is even, 47 percent support Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti respectively.”

Of those polled, 52 percent viewed Lujan Grisham favorably compared to 46 percent who viewed her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 51 percent viewed Ronchetti favorably compared to 41 percent who viewed him unfavorably. Favorability ratings are different from approval ratings.

The same poll found that 47 percent of voters approved of President Joe Biden’s job performance and an equal 47 percent disapproved.

The poll also found that 47 percent of voters would support Democratic incumbent Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump, a Republican, in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. Trump has not announced he would run again after losing to Biden in 2020. Biden beat Trump 54.3 percent to 43.5 percent in New Mexico in 2020.

The SurveyUSA poll showed a 12 point lead for Lujan Grisham, while an Albuquerque Journal poll in August showed a 7 point lead. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted by Emerson College for KRQE-TV from Sept. 8 to 11. Respondents were surveyed using “a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, web survey via email, and an online panel” according to the pollster. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, which means any of the topline results can be off by that much.