2022 elections

Poll: Narrow lead for Lujan Grisham in gubernatorial race

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A poll released on Monday showed a closer race than two other polls released earlier in the week. The poll, conducted by Emerson College Polling for the Washington D.C. paper The Hill, showed incumbent Gov. Lujan Grisham leading her Republican opponent Mark Ronchetti narrowly, 49 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with 1 percent backing Libertarian nominee Karen Bedonie. When undecided voters were pushed, the race further tightened with Lujan Grisham’s lead narrowing to 50 percent to 48 percent. Lujan Grisham holds a large lead among those who said they already voted, 59 percent to 39.5 percent. Ronchetti, meanwhile, leads among those who said they were very likely to vote, 48.4 percent to 44.8 percent.

Polling

Poll: Lujan Grisham leads Ronchetti by 5 points

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The second public poll in as many days showed a lead for incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham—but smaller than the poll released earlier in the week. The poll was conducted by Emerson College for The Hill, which is owned by the same company that owns KRQE-TV. The Emerson College poll found a five percent lead for Lujan Grisham over Republican Mark Ronchetti, 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The poll did not name Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie, who will appear on the ballot, though 3 percent said they would vote for “someone else.” Another 5 percent were undecided. “New Mexico Hispanic voters support Lujan Grisham over Ronchetti by a ten point margin, 50 percent to 40 percent; the Governor’s lead decreases to two points among White voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said in the polling memo.

Quick Reads

Poll: In NM, Sanders/Biden at top of Dem primary, top Dems lead Trump

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A new poll of New Mexico voters shows a two-way battle among Democrats seeking support for the Democratic nomination in the state—while showing that top-tier Democratic names each outpace President Donald Trump in the general election. The poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows that Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has the support of 28 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 27 percent. They were both far ahead of entrepreneur Andrew Yang (10 percent), Massachusetts U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (8 percent) and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7 percent). No other candidate received the support of more than 3 percent of voters. New Mexico’s primary is on June 2, very late in the process; only the U.S. Virgin Islands’ June 6 Caucus is later. 

But the poll indicates whichever Democrat emerges from the primary has a head start on winning New Mexico’s five electoral votes in November.

Elections

Emerson poll: Lujan Grisham leads by 9, Heinrich by 16

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A new poll shows good news for Democrats in New Mexico’s two top statewide races and  a close race for a hard-fought congressional race in southern New Mexico. Emerson College released their second round of polling of likely voters in New Mexico, and the poll showed Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leading Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 44 percent in the gubernatorial race. The two are involved in an expensive race that has included millions of dollars spent on TV ads from both sides in the hopes of replacing Susana Martinez as governor. Martinez, a Republican, cannot run for a third consecutive term. A previous Emerson College poll conducted in August showed Lujan Grisham leading Steve Pearce 42 percent to 40 percent.

Border Wall

Poll: Close governor’s race, Johnson in 2nd in Senate race

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The race for New Mexico governor is tight, while the incumbent Democratic U.S. senator holds a sizeable lead over his two challengers, according to a new poll from Emerson College. The poll, conducted last week, via calls to landlines and online surveys and released Monday morning, shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham with a two point lead over Republican nominee Steve Pearce, 42 percent to 40 percent. The poll shows 18 percent of voters polled are still undecided. The poll is of registered voters. Both candidates are leaving their respective congressional seats to run for governor.