October 27, 2022

Poll: A ‘virtual tie’ in 2nd Congressional District

A "Vote Here" sign at the Otero County Fairgrounds in Alamogordo.

Nicole Maxwell

A "Vote Here" sign at the Otero County Fairgrounds in Alamogordo.

A poll of likely voters in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District finds a “virtual tie,” with Democrat Gabe Vasquez leading incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell 48 percent to 47 percent in the final days leading up to the election.

The poll was conducted by Siena College for the New York Times as part of a series of polls in battleground districts.

The poll found that Herrell had a significant amount of “crossover support” from voters who said they voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Herrell voted against certifying the 2020 election even after the insurrection at the Capitol. It wasn’t a major driver of votes, as just 45 percent of those polled said they would rather vote for someone who thinks Biden won the 2020 election, while 22 percent said they would rather vote for someone who thinks Republican Donald Trump won the 2020 election, while 30 percent said it did not matter either way.

Biden won the election, but Trump continued to make unsubstantiated and false claims that the election was not fair up to and after the insurrection when his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol.

The poll also found that 44 percent of likely voters approved of President Biden’s job performance, while 52 percent disapproved.

The poll also found that 50 percent believe abortion should be always or mostly legal, with 30 percent saying always, and that 30 percent said it should be mostly or always illegal, with 11 percent saying always. Another 13 percent said it did not matter, and 7 percent did not know.

Meanwhile, 47 percents said that economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living were most important when deciding their vote, compared to 38 percent who said societal issues, such as abortion, guns or democracy.

Herrell won the 2020 election, defeating incumbent Democrat Xochitl Torres Small. Torres Small narrowly defeated Herrell in 2018. Redistricting changed the borders of the 2nd Congressional District dramatically, making it less friendly to Republicans.

The Siena College poll of 398 likely voters in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District was conducted from Oct. 20-24 on both cellular and landline telephones in English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points, which means each topline result can be that much higher or lower.