A new poll, taken ahead of the expansion of early voting, found that Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by nine points in the race for New Mexico’s five electoral votes.
The same poll also found that Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez has a small lead over former U.S. Rep. Yvette Herrell, a Republican, in the race for New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District seat. The race is considered a key race when it comes to which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives next year.
Research & Polling, Inc. conducted the poll for the Albuquerque Journal which found 50 percent of likely voters in New Mexico support Harris, the Democrat, while 41 percent support Trump, the Republican.
This is very close to a poll by the same firm in September that found Harris led 49 percent to 39 percent.
Harris has a large lead among women, 53 percent to 38 percent, and a narrow lead among men, 47 percent to 44 percent.
Harris also leads in most regions of the state, including a 58 percent to 33 percent lead in the Albuquerque metro area, the most populous portion of the state. Trump leads among likely voters in Eastern New Mexico, 65 percent to 29 percent.
New Mexico voters last backed a Republican presidential candidate in 2004, when incumbent George W. Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry by less than a percentage point in the state.
The 2nd Congressional District race has been the state’s swing district for years, and legislators made the district more Democratic after redistricting in 2021.
This race features a rematch of 2022, when Vasquez narrowly defeated then-incumbent Herrell by just 1,350 votes, 50.3 percent to 49.6 percent.
The Research & Polling, Inc. poll for the Albuquerque Journal found a 49 percent to 45 percent lead for Vasquez this year.
Like Harris in the presidential race, Vasquez has a large lead among female voters—53 percent to 39 percent—but unlike the presidential race, the Republican, Herrell, holds a slight lead among male voters—50 percent to 46 percent.
The poll found that Vasquez has an 11 point lead among Hispanic voters, while Herrell has a four-point lead among Anglo/Caucasian voters.
The poll was conducted between Oct. 10 and Oct. 18, and the poll used live interviewers based in Albuquerque and included live interviews of cell phones and landlines. For the presidential race, the poll surveyed 1,024 likely voters and it has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The congressional poll surveyed 414 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.