KOB-TV

Polls: Lujan Grisham leads by high single digits in reelection campaign; Dems lead in other key races

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Two polls in the final days of the gubernatorial campaign show incumbent Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham with a lead over her Republican challenger, Mark Ronchetti. The Albuquerque Journal’s poll, conducted by Research & Polling, Inc. and long considered the best public polling in New Mexico, showed a lead of 8 points for Lujan Grisham. The poll showed Lujan Grisham with 50 percent, Ronchetti with 42 percent and Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie with 3 percent. Another 4 percent were undecided in the final days of the election. Meanwhile, a poll for KOB-TV, conducted by SurveyUSA, found a 7 point lead for Lujan Grisham.

News

ABQ Journal poll: Biden, Luján with healthy leads, while southern NM congressional race remains close

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The final Albuquerque Journal poll ahead of the elections showed large leads for Democrats in the race for president and U.S. Senate, as well as two of the three U.S. House races—but one House race is extremely close. The poll, conducted by Research and Polling, found a lead of 12 percentage points for Democratic candidate Joe Biden over incumbent Republican Donald Trump for president, 54 percent to 42 percent among those who are likely to vote or who have already voted. Most analysts have listed New Mexico as a safely or likely Democratic state on the presidential level. Democrats have won New Mexico’s five electoral votes in the last three presidential elections. The Journal reported Biden had large leads among women, Hispanic voters and moderates in addition to liberals.

News

Poll shows leads for Democrats, including presidential, Senate race

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A poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal recently, with results released this weekend, showed a large lead for former Vice President Joe Biden in the presidential race and a sizeable, if smaller, lead for U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Luján in the U.S. Senate race. The poll—conducted by Research & Polling, Inc., the long-time pollster for the newspaper—also found leads for Democrats in the three congressional races, but the state’s southern congressional district was well within the margin poll’s margin of error. The Journal poll found a 15-point lead for Biden, 54 percent to 39 percent, over incumbent Donald Trump. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won New Mexico 48.3 percent to 40 percent over Trump. But Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, had 9.3 percent of the vote.

2018 elections

Poll shows Dems lead in most statewide races

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A recent poll shows Democrats are poised to clinch most statewide races, while a congressional race remains too close to call and one expensive state race leans towards Republicans. A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Republican Steve Pearce 53 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor. The ten point lead is an increase from the 7 percent race found in a September poll. The same poll found incumbent U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat, leading in the three-way race against former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Libertarian, and contractor Mick Rich, a Republican. Heinrich is 20 points ahead of Rich and almost 40 ahead of Johnson.

Albuquerque Journal

Poll: Dems lead in two key statewide races

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Democrats are ahead in two of New Mexico’s most important races, according to an Albuquerque Journal poll. The poll’s results, released Sunday, showed 50 percent of likely voters would support Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham and 43 percent for Republican Steve Pearce. The two are looking to replace Susana Martinez, a Republican who is term-limited and cannot run for a third consecutive term. Both Lujan Grisham and Pearce are U.S. representatives, leaving their positions for the statewide run. Pollster Brian Sanderoff told the Albuquerque Journal that Pearce needs more support in the Albuquerque metro area, which holds a large percentage of the state’s population, if he wants to close the gap.

Albuquerque Journal

Another poll shows Keller lead, high number of undecideds in ABQ mayor’s race

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The latest poll of the Albuquerque mayoral race shows State Auditor Tim Keller leading the field, but still well below the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Other recent polls have also reflected Keller’s popularity among voters. But all three polls, the Research and Polling, Inc. poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal and two conducted earlier, show a high number of undecided voters. Election Day is Oct. 3 and early voting has already opened.

2017 State Budget

Poll shows New Mexicans favor some tax increases to balance budget

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A new poll finds that a majority of registered voters in New Mexico support raising taxes to make up for the state’s budget shortfalls. According to the poll, commissioned by the New Mexico Center on Law and Poverty, registered voters do not support reducing public education funds in order to fix the state’s budget. The Center’s Executive Director Edward Tabet-Cubero said in a statement New Mexico lawmakers should take note of the poll results. “This survey demonstrates strong public opinion that the solution to this crisis should not come in the form of more cuts,” Tabet-Cubero said. The poll was conducted by Research and Polling in Albuquerque.

2016 elections

Poll: Clinton up by 5 in NM as Election Day nears

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A poll by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal released Sunday shows Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by 5 percent in New Mexico, days before Election Day. Research and Polling, which conducts polls for the Journal, is the only pollster that uses live interviews to poll in New Mexico this year. The poll, conducted from Nov. 1 to 3, shows 45 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Clinton, while 40 percent say they will vote for Trump. Former Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, saw his support fall to 11 percent.

Albuquerque Journal

FiveThirtyEight: What happens if Johnson wins NM?

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Will New Mexico be in play this presidential election? That’s the question following the release of an Albuquerque Journal poll by Research and Polling, Inc. Sunday (which NM Political Report wrote about). And it’s a question polling guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight looked into Monday. The bottom line is that the FiveThirtyEight model still has Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton as a heavy favorite to win the state. While the poll was close between Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, FiveThirtyEight still has Clinton an 82 percent favorite to win the state, down from 85 percent before the poll.

Al Gore

Poll: Clinton leads Trump narrowly in NM, Johnson polling well

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A new poll shows Hillary Clinton has a narrow lead over Donald Trump in New Mexico in the race for president—and that Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson has an impressive showing. The poll, conducted by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, shows Democratic nominee Clinton holds a 35 percent to 31 percent lead over Republican nominee Trump among likely voters in New Mexico. Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, brings in 24 percent. This appears to be the best showing by Johnson in any state poll so far. Green Party nominee Jill Stein, meanwhile, gets the support of just two percent of likely voters.