A new poll finds New Mexico voters give Democrats Kamala Harris and Martin Heinrich double-digit leads in the upcoming general election. The poll also finds Democrats leading in each of the state’s three congressional districts.
The poll, conducted by Emerson College for The Hill, found Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump, a Republican, 52 percent to 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
“Harris’ lead is similar to Joe Biden’s 10.8 point win over Trump in 2020,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the polling memo. “Independent voters in New Mexico break for Harris, 48 percent to 37 percent. Men break for Harris by a narrow two-point margin, 48 percent to 46 percent, while women break for Harris by 17 points, 55 percent to 38 percent.”
The lead drops to eight points, 54 percent to 46 percent, when undecided voters are pushed towards which candidate they lean towards.
When third party candidates are included, Harris leads Trump 51 percent to 40 percent, with 3 percent backing Robert F Kennedy Jr. Kennedy, an environmental lawyer who has gained attention for his anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, dropped out of the presidential race on Friday and endorsed Trump. He has until Aug. 27 to file to remove his name from the New Mexico ballot.
The poll found that 53 percent of New Mexico voters have a very or somewhat favorable view of Harris, compared to 46 percent who have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of her.
For Trump, just 42 percent of New Mexico voters had a very or somewhat favorable view of the former president and 57 percent have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of him.
The same poll finds Heinrich with a 12-point lead over Republican Nella Domenici, 49 percent to 37 percent. That poll found that 4 percent would support another candidate and 9 percent remain undecided.
The poll also surveyed the three congressional races taking place, though these samples were much smaller.
In the 2nd Congressional District race, which is likely to be one of the closest races in the country this November, incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez leads former Rep. Yvette Herrell 50 percent to 41 percent, though the poll surveyed just 283 voters in the district.
In the 1st Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Melanie Ann Stansbury leads Republican Steve Jones 51 percent to 37 percent. And in the 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernández leads Republican Sharon Clahchischilliage 52 percent to 39 percent.
The poll also looked at approval ratings for President Joe Biden and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.
The poll found 46 percent of voters approve of Biden’s job performance and 46 percent disapprove, with 8 percent who are neutral or have no opinion.
For Lujan Grisham, 48 percent disapprove of her job performance and 41 percent approve, while 11 percent have a neutral or no opinion.
Percentages may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.
The poll of 965 registered voters took place between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22 by Emerson College Polling. The pollster collected data via Interactive Voice Response on landlines, MMS-to-web text on cell phone and an online panel. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points for statewide races. The margins of error for congressional races were 5.2 percent for the 1st Congressional District, 5.8 percent for the 2nd Congressional District and 5.3 percent for the 3rd Congressional District.
Update: This story was updated to reflect that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. dropped out of the presidential race.