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A "Vote Here" sign at the Otero County Fairgrounds in Alamogordo.

Poll: CD2 race extremely close a year ahead of voting

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As New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District looks like it will be a rematch of the 2022 race, incumbent Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, very narrowly trails former U.S. Rep. Yvette Herrell, a Republican. The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KOB-TV, found that 46 percent of likely voters would vote for Herrell and 45 percent would vote for Vasquez. That leaves 9 percent who are currently, over a year from the start of voting, undecided. Related: Vasquez announces reelection bid in southern NM congressional district

A large swath of those surveyed did not have opinions on Herrell or Vasquez. When asked if they favored the candidates, 39 percent said they held a favorable opinion of Herrell, with 32 percent saying unfavorable and 23 percent saying neutral, with 8 percent saying no opinion.

News

Lujan Grisham approval rating at 47 percent while Heinrich and Luján have lower ratings

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Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham continues to have more voters approve of her job performance than disapprove, though the number remains below 50 percent. Meanwhile, both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators have more voters who approve of their job performance than disapprove but a large amount have no opinion. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report found that 47 percent of New Mexico voters approve of Lujan Grisham’s job performance, compared to 43 percent who disapprove. Another 9 percent are not sure. Numbers on polls may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.

Elections

Biden leads in NM in potential 2024 matchups

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A new exclusive poll commissioned by NM Political Report finds that incumbent President Joe Biden has a lead over former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in potential 2024 matchups in New Mexico. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, surveyed 767 New Mexico voters from Aug. 23-24. Biden has the support of 49 percent of those polled against both Trump and DeSantis. In a potential rematch against Trump, the Republican former President would get 41 percent of the vote, with 10 percent of voters saying they were not sure.

2022 elections

Poll: Narrow lead for Lujan Grisham in gubernatorial race

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A poll released on Monday showed a closer race than two other polls released earlier in the week. The poll, conducted by Emerson College Polling for the Washington D.C. paper The Hill, showed incumbent Gov. Lujan Grisham leading her Republican opponent Mark Ronchetti narrowly, 49 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with 1 percent backing Libertarian nominee Karen Bedonie. When undecided voters were pushed, the race further tightened with Lujan Grisham’s lead narrowing to 50 percent to 48 percent. Lujan Grisham holds a large lead among those who said they already voted, 59 percent to 39.5 percent. Ronchetti, meanwhile, leads among those who said they were very likely to vote, 48.4 percent to 44.8 percent.

KOB-TV

Polls: Lujan Grisham leads by high single digits in reelection campaign; Dems lead in other key races

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Two polls in the final days of the gubernatorial campaign show incumbent Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham with a lead over her Republican challenger, Mark Ronchetti. The Albuquerque Journal’s poll, conducted by Research & Polling, Inc. and long considered the best public polling in New Mexico, showed a lead of 8 points for Lujan Grisham. The poll showed Lujan Grisham with 50 percent, Ronchetti with 42 percent and Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie with 3 percent. Another 4 percent were undecided in the final days of the election. Meanwhile, a poll for KOB-TV, conducted by SurveyUSA, found a 7 point lead for Lujan Grisham.

Abortion

Poll shows majority of NM voters support abortion rights

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New Mexico voters indicated that they support abortion rights, including New Mexico’s repeal of an antiquated abortion law. In a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report, 55 percent of likely voters said they supported the repeal of the law that allowed abortion to remain legal in New Mexico despite the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision this summer that overturned Roe v. Wade. Another 33 percent said they opposed it and 11 percent said that they were not sure. This is similar to the results in June, before the Supreme Court decided Dobbs. In that poll, 53 percent said they would support such a repeal and 36 percent said they would oppose it.

COVID-19

Voters split on Biden, Lujan Grisham’s handling of COVID

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New Mexico likely voters are evenly split on Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, while voters are virtually split on the same question about President Joe Biden. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report found that 48 percent of voters approved and an equal number disapproved of what Lujan Grisham did during the COVID-19 pandemic. The remaining 4 percent were not sure. For Biden 46 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved, while 7 percent were not sure. There have been virtually no restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID for months.

News

Poll: Double-digit lead for Lujan Grisham in reelection bid

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A poll conducted last week for KOB-TV found incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham with a large lead over Republican nominee Mark Ronchetti. The poll conducted by SurveyUSA for the Albuquerque-based TV station found that 53 percent of likely voters supported Lujan Grisham, compared to 37 percent for Ronchetti and 3 percent for Libertarian nominee Karen Bedonie. Another 7 percent said they were undecided. This is the largest lead shown of any publicly released poll in the governor’s race so far. A poll conducted for NM Political Report at the tail end of the same week found Lujan Grisham led Ronchetti by 8 percentage points.

Polling

Poll: Lujan Grisham leads governor’s race by 8 points

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Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham continues to lead the gubernatorial race, with the support of just under 50 percent of likely voters. That’s according to a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report. 

The poll found that Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, leads Republican challenger Mark Ronchetti 48 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie getting the support of 7 percent. Another 6 percent are undecided. Related: See Michelle Lujan Grisham’s approval rating

This is an increase in the gap between the two top contenders from a June NM Political Report poll which showed Lujan Grisham leading with 45 percent of supporters to 42 percent for Ronchetti and 9 percent for Bedonie. The poll is slightly higher than the average of polls at Real Clear Politics which shows Lujan Grisham leading by 6.7 points.

Ben Ray Lujan

Poll: Lujan Grisham approval rating at 46 percent

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Slightly more likely voters disapprove of Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s job performance than approve, according to a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling for NM Political Report. The poll found that 46 percent of voters approved of her job performance and 49 percent disapproved. Another 6 percent said they were not sure. This is a drop from a NM Political Report poll in June, which found 48 percent approved and an equal percentage disapproved of her job performance. 

Related: Lujan Grisham leads governor’s race by 8 points

Lujan Grisham is in the midst of a reelection campaign against former meteorologist and former Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mark Ronchetti. The poll found that 39 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Ronchetti, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion and 15 percent said they were not sure.