October 27, 2016

Poll: Clinton lead over Trump in NM is 5

Hillary Clinton at the Winning Healthcare in 2009 forum in Denver. Photo Credit: WEBN-TV cc

A new poll shows that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by just 5 percent in New Mexico.

The survey by ZiaPoll, a new pollster this election cycle, shows Clinton leads 45 percent to 40 percent over Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee earning the support of 9 percent of likely voters, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails at 2 percent.

The poll is in sharp contrast to polls of other surrounding states, which shows Clinton behind by a handful of points in deep-red Texas and in a very close race, possibly even ahead, in Arizona.

A previous poll by ZiaPoll showed Clinton leading by 10 percent.

In the press release announcing the results, the pollster said Trump was actually leading among voters between 18-34 years old. Still, the pollster warned of “extrapolating smaller sample counts to the overall population.”

In other words, beware of small sample sizes.

The results among 18-24 year olds, for example, is just 100 voters.

Another result in the subsamples shows Clinton leading Trump just 52 percent to 39 percent among Hispanic or Latino voters, much smaller than in many surveys. Johnson receives the support of 6 percent, and Stein did not get one Hispanic or Latino respondent say they would vote for her out of the 408 surveyed.

The most recent national tracking poll of Latinos by the pollster Latino Decisions showed Clinton leading by 59 percent.

Among New Mexico voters identified as White Caucasians in the ZiaPoll survey, Clinton leads 44 percent to 41 percent, with Johnson pulling 10 percent.

The poll also looked at the Secretary of State race. In that race, Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver leads Republican Nora Espinoza 51 percent to 39 percent. Toulouse Oliver is the Bernalillo County Clerk, while Espinoza is a State Representative.

The poll of 1,899 likely voters was conducted on Oct. 24 using Interactive Voice Response (or IVR) for voters with landlines. For those with cell phones, they are asked to call-in to complete the same survey (federal law prohibits calling cell phones using IVR technology). The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.25 percent.

ZiaPoll Oct 24 poll release by New Mexico Political Report on Scribd

NM Statewide ZiaPoll CrossTabs Oct24 by New Mexico Political Report on Scribd