October 24, 2018

Poll: Herrell leads by one point in CD2 clash



The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows just how close the 2nd Congressional District race remains.

The poll found that Republican state Rep. Yvette Herrell leads her Democratic opponent, water attorney Xochitl Torres Small, 45 percent to 44 percent, with still 11 percent undecided.

Nate Cohn of the New York Times, who is part of the congressional polling project for the newspaper, says it was their closest result yet.

The poll notes that the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent means each candidate’s true numbers could be that much in either direction.

Spending in the district, which is in the millions by outside groups, shows they also believe the race is one of dozens in the nation that will determine who controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

A poll by the same pollsters in September showed Torres Small with a 46 percent to 45 percent lead over Herrell, again well within the pollster’s margin of error.

Meanwhile, a poll by the Albuquerque Journal around the same time showed Herrell with a 7 percentage point lead, 48 percent to 41 percent.

The district is the most conservative of the three congressional districts in the state, and is an open race because its current representative, Republican Steve Pearce, opted to run for governor instead of reelection. A Democrat has only held the district for one term since New Mexico gained a third district in 1983.

Among those who already voted, 20 percent of those surveyed, 61 percent said they backed Torres Small and 33 percent Herrell with 6 percent undecided. This is a very small sample, however, so the margin of error is much larger than the poll as a whole.

The poll of 522 likely voters took place between Oct. 19 and Oct. 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The poll surveyed 359 by cell phone and 163 by landline.