November 8, 2022

FiveThirtyEight predicts Lujan Grisham, Herrell favored to win reelection

The two biggest races in the 2022 General Election are the governor’s race and Congressional District 2.

Poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight predicts that incumbents Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, and U.S. Rep. Yvette Herrell, a Republican, will win reelection Nov. 8.

FiveThirtyEight has an election breakdown of when to expect election results and a forecasting model that shows based on polls how contenders may do once ballots are counted.

The Deluxe version “simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often,” Nathaniel Rakich and Elena Mejía say in the FiveThirtyEight project.

The project shows 100 possibilities for the election’s outcome.

For governor, it shows that incumbent Lujan Grisham is favored to win re-election with 85 of 100 possibilities showing Lujan Grisham the winner with Republican challenger Mark Ronchetti winning in 15 of 100 possibilities.

The polls used to determine the possible outcomes include Research and Polling which showed Lujan Grisham with 50 percent of respondents preferring her to 42 percent preferring Ronchetti, Emerson College which also showed Lujan Grisham polling ahead of Ronchetti by 2 percentage points and the only poll that placed Ronchetti above Lujan Grisham was Trafalgar Group which showed Ronchetti was preferred by 47 percent to Lujan Grisham at 46 percent.

For New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, the FiveThirtyEight analysis shows incumbent Herrell is favored to win based on her winning 78 of 100 possible outcomes and Democratic challenger Gabe Vasquez winning 22 out of 100 possible outcomes.

The polls used to determine the possible outcomes include those by Research and Polling which showed 47 percent of respondents prefer Vasquez to 45 percent preferring Herrell; Emerson College which showed 54 percent of respondents prefer Herrell to 44 percent preferring Vasquez and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot showing Vasquez ahead of Herrell by 1 percent.

Meanwhile at the polling places, voters across New Mexico who have opted to either vote early or vote absentee said that there were no major issues and that lines moved quickly at busier poll locations.

The only issues some people had were election officials asking for identification.

By statute, voters are only required to state their name and address and provide a signature, if able.

Accommodations in filling out a ballot can be made for those who require one, such as the visually impaired, disabled or are unable to read or write.

If a voter needs assistance, they are to tell the poll workers that assistance is needed, signatures from the voter and the polling place’s presiding judge and the person assisting the voter must sign the ballot.

For more information about voting in the 2022 General Election, visit or call the New Mexico Secretary of State’s Office at 505-827-3600.

To follow the election’s results visit the New Mexico Secretary of State’s Office’s results page: