September 19, 2023

Poll: CD2 race extremely close a year ahead of voting

A "Vote Here" sign at the Otero County Fairgrounds in Alamogordo.

Nicole Maxwell

A "Vote Here" sign at the Otero County Fairgrounds in Alamogordo.

As New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District looks like it will be a rematch of the 2022 race, incumbent Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, very narrowly trails former U.S. Rep. Yvette Herrell, a Republican.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KOB-TV, found that 46 percent of likely voters would vote for Herrell and 45 percent would vote for Vasquez. That leaves 9 percent who are currently, over a year from the start of voting, undecided.

Related: Vasquez announces reelection bid in southern NM congressional district

A large swath of those surveyed did not have opinions on Herrell or Vasquez. When asked if they favored the candidates, 39 percent said they held a favorable opinion of Herrell, with 32 percent saying unfavorable and 23 percent saying neutral, with 8 percent saying no opinion. Meanwhile, 33 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Vasquez, with 29 percent who said they held an unfavorable opinion. Another 28 percent said they had a neutral opinion and 11 percent said they had no opinion.

In 2022, Vasquez defeated Herrell by just 0.8 percentage points. Herrell was running in her third consecutive election for the same seat, narrowly losing in 2018 to Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and winning against Torres Small in 2020.

SurveyUSA polled 541 likely voters in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. SurveyUSA conducted the poll between Sept. 6 and 12.

Correction: This story originally swapped the percentages for Vasquez and Herrell. This has been corrected.


  • Matthew Reichbach

    Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew also a co-founded New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.