November 1, 2022

Poll: Narrow lead for Lujan Grisham in gubernatorial race


Edited. cc

A poll released on Monday showed a closer race than two other polls released earlier in the week.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College Polling for the Washington D.C. paper The Hill, showed incumbent Gov. Lujan Grisham leading her Republican opponent Mark Ronchetti narrowly, 49 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with 1 percent backing Libertarian nominee Karen Bedonie.

When undecided voters were pushed, the race further tightened with Lujan Grisham’s lead narrowing to 50 percent to 48 percent.

Lujan Grisham holds a large lead among those who said they already voted, 59 percent to 39.5 percent. Ronchetti, meanwhile, leads among those who said they were very likely to vote, 48.4 percent to 44.8 percent.

The poll showed none of the three congressional races were particularly close, with incumbents holding the lead. While other polls have shown the 2nd Congressional District race as extremely close, the Emerson College poll showed incumbent Republican leading Democratic challenger Gabe Vasquez 54 percent to 41 percent.

In the 1st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury lead 50 percent to 40 percent. In the 3rd Congressional District, 53 percent supported incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez over Republican nominee Alexis Martinez Johnson’s 40 percent.

The poll also surveyed voters’ thoughts on a hypothetical Presidential race between incumbent Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump. In that question, respondents backed Biden, 48 percent to 38 percent.

Biden and Trump are both involving themselves in the New Mexico gubernatorial race. Biden is scheduled to appear at a campaign rally for Lujan Grisham later this week. And Trump endorsed Ronchetti in a social media post.

The average of recent polls according to Real Clear Politics shows Lujan Grisham with a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Ronchetti.

The Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28. Emerson College polled cell phones with an SMS-to-web system, landlines with an Interactive Voice Response system, and surveyed those on the web through email and via an online panel.

The margin of error for the statewide figures was plus or minus 3.02 percent, which means any topline result could be that much higher or lower. For the 1st Congressional District, the poll surveyed 372 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent, for the 2nd Congressional District, the poll surveyed 302 likely voters with a plus or minus 5.6 percent margin of error and for the 3rd Congressional District, the poll surveyed 326 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percent.