August 28, 2023

Biden leads in NM in potential 2024 matchups

Hannah Grover

President Joe Biden speaks during an event in Belen.

A new exclusive poll commissioned by NM Political Report finds that incumbent President Joe Biden has a lead over former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in potential 2024 matchups in New Mexico.

The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, surveyed 767 New Mexico voters from Aug. 23-24.

Biden has the support of 49 percent of those polled against both Trump and DeSantis. In a potential rematch against Trump, the Republican former President would get 41 percent of the vote, with 10 percent of voters saying they were not sure.

DeSantis received the support of slightly more New Mexico voters, 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Numbers in poll results do not always add up to 100 percent because of rounding.

Democrats have dominated among New Mexico voters in recent presidential contests. In 2020, BIden defeated Trump by 10.79 percent to earn the state’s five electoral votes, 54.29 percent to 43.5 percent. A Republican has not won New Mexico since 2004, when George W. Bush narrowly defeated John Kerry. The last statewide election of any kind that Republicans have won was in 2016, when Judith Nakmura won an election to remain a state Supreme Court justice. She retired in 2020.

Of those surveyed, 52 percent said they voted for Biden, 41 percent for Trump and 7 percent said they voted for someone else or did not vote.

Biden leads despite a higher disapproval rating than approval rating among New Mexico voters. 

The poll finds that 45 percent of New Mexico voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 48 percent disapprove.

But those polled were much more dissatisfied with Trump and DeSantis. 

The poll found that just 33 percent of New Mexico voters had a favorable opinion of Trump, and that just 27 percent had a favorable opinion of DeSantis. Meanwhile, 57 percent had an unfavorable opinion of the former president and 54 percent had an unfavorable opinion of the Florida governor.

BIden holds a large lead among voters who identified as Hispanic or Latino, with 59 percent of those supporting the incumbent to 34 percent who supported Trump.

Biden leads DeSantis among Hispanic voters 57 percent to 36 percent.

But white voters tend to back the Republicans, with 47 percent saying they would vote for Trump and 44 percent for Biden, while 49 percent said they would vote for DeSantis and 43 percent for Biden.

Among all other ethnicities, Biden led 48 percent to 34 percent over Trump and 50 percent to 32 percent over DeSantis.

The poll surveyed 767 New Mexico voters on Aug. 23 and 24 via landline and text message. The survey used 35 percent landline and 65 percent text message. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5% for topline questions, though subpopulations will have a larger margin of error.


  • Matthew Reichbach

    Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew also a co-founded New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.