June 20, 2022

Poll: Lujan Grisham with narrow lead at start of general election

A new poll commissioned by NM Political Report shows that incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham holds a narrow lead over Republican nominee Mark Ronchetti at the start of the general election campaign.

The poll by Public Policy Polling shows Lujan Grisham leads Ronchetti 45 percent to 42 percent, with Libertarian Karen Bedonie receiving 9 percent and 5 percent saying they’re not sure.

The lead for Lujan Grisham is within the margin of error for the poll.

Related: Poll: Lujan Grisham even approval/disapproval ratings

Lujan Grisham won the 2018 gubernatorial campaign 57.2 percent to 42.8 percent over Steve Pearce, the Republican candidate and now chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico.

Ronchetti lost the 2020 U.S. Senate election to Democrat Ben Ray Luján 51.7 percent to 45.6 percent with Libertarian Bob Walsh taking 2.6 percent.

Bedonie lost in the 2020 3rd Congressional District Republican primary.

Ronchetti, a former meteorologist, won a five-way Republican primary easily earlier this month, while Lujan Grisham was unopposed. Bedonie had a write-in opponent.

Lujan Grisham holds a large lead among those who voted for Biden in 2020, 86 percent to 6 percent, with 4 percent saying they would vote for Bedonie. Ronchetti, meanwhile, leads among Trump voters 88 percent to 8 percent for Bedonie and 1 percent for Lujan Grisham.

Lujan Grisham’s lead also largely comes thanks to Hispanic or Latino voters, 64 percent of whom would vote for the incumbent, compared to 28 percent for Ronchetti and 3 percent for Bedonie. Ronchetti, meanwhile, leads among white voters with 54 percent choosing him, compared to 32 percent for Lujan Grisham and 11 percent for Bedonie. Among other ethnicities, 45 percent back Lujan Grisham, 26 percent back Ronchetti and 16 percent back Bedonie.

The poll of 642 New Mexico voters was conducted on June 13 and 14. Public Policy Polling called landlines and text messaged those without landlines. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent for topline questions, while subpopulations will have larger margins of error. Not all percentages will add up to 100 percent because of rounding.