Another poll shows Keller lead, high number of undecideds in ABQ mayor’s race

The latest poll of the Albuquerque mayoral race shows State Auditor Tim Keller leading the field, but still well below the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Other recent polls have also reflected Keller’s popularity among voters. But all three polls, the Research and Polling, Inc. poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal and two conducted earlier, show a high number of undecided voters. Election Day is Oct. 3 and early voting has already opened.

Martinez approval rating ticks up slightly, but she remains near bottom

Gov. Susana Martinez’s approval ratings bumped up slightly in the latest results from Morning Consult.

The poll showed that Martinez’s approval rating among registered voters moved back toward even, with 44 percent approval and 45 percent disapproval and 10 percent undecided. Martinez is the 10th-least popular governor out of 49 polled. In the Morning Consult’s April poll, 44 percent approved of Martinez’s job performance while 48 percent disapproved. The difference in results is within the poll’s margin of error. While Martinez is near the bottom of the ratings, she is well ahead of those at the very bottom—Kansas’ Sam Brownback and New Jersey’s Chris Christie have approval ratings of just 25 percent against disapproval ratings of 66 percent and 69 percent.

GOP poll shows Lujan Grisham with slight lead over Pearce in race for governor

A poll by a Republican pollster finds that Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham leads Steve Pearce in a hypothetical matchup—but also that there are still a large number of undecided voters. The poll, conducted by The Tarrance Group in late May, found that when the two U.S. Representatives are matched up against each other, Lujan Grisham leads Pearce 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided. The Tarrance Group lists Pearce as a former client on its website, though the polling memo does not indicate who paid for the poll. Notably, the firm polled for the Republican in 2010, when he successfully ran against Harry Teague to retake the 2nd Congressional District seat. Pearce left the seat in 2008 to run for U.S. Senate.

Poll: Clinton lead over Trump in NM is 5

A new poll shows that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by just 5 percent in New Mexico. The survey by ZiaPoll, a new pollster this election cycle, shows Clinton leads 45 percent to 40 percent over Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee earning the support of 9 percent of likely voters, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails at 2 percent. The poll is in sharp contrast to polls of other surrounding states, which shows Clinton behind by a handful of points in deep-red Texas and in a very close race, possibly even ahead, in Arizona. A previous poll by ZiaPoll showed Clinton leading by 10 percent. In the press release announcing the results, the pollster said Trump was actually leading among voters between 18-34 years old.

Poll: Double-digit lead for Clinton in NM

A new poll for KOB-TV by SurveyUSA shows a double-digit lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in New Mexico. The poll also showed a new low for Gov. Susana Martinez when it comes to approval ratings and a wide lead by the Democratic candidate for Secretary of State. The poll shows the Democratic presidential nominee leads the Republican nominee 46 percent to 33 percent. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, has the support of 14 percent while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has the support of 2 percent. In a Research and Polling, Inc. poll commissioned by the Albuquerque Journal that was released earlier this week, Clinton led 35 percent to 31 percent.

Poll puts Martinez’s approval rating at 50 percent

A new survey says 50 percent of New Mexican registered voters approve of Gov. Susana Martinez’s job performance, according to a Morning Consult poll that looked at the approval ratings of all 50 governors. That’s compared to the 45 percent who disapprove. Her approval rating increased from the last time Morning Consult released results, in May. At that time, 48 percent of New Mexican registered voters approved of Martinez’s job performance to 45 percent who disapproved. Martinez has the 11th-highest percentage of those who disapprove, and the 32nd-highest amount of those who approve of her job performance.

Johnson, Stein don’t qualify for first presidential debate

Only two candidates will be onstage at the first presidential debate next week, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson will not be one of them. The former governor, now the Libertarian Party presidential nominee, didn’t reach the polling target set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, which requires an average support of 15 percent. Green Party nominee Jill Stein also failed to gain enough support to make it onstage. The poling also applies to a vice presidential debate next month. Instead, the debate will pit Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Poll shows approval ratings for Heinrich, Udall

Both of New Mexico’s U.S. Senators are relatively popular, though a large amount of the state voters don’t have an opinion about them either way, according to a poll by online polling firm Morning Consult.

The poll, which looked at the approval rating of all 100 U.S. Senators, showed New Mexico Senators Martin Heinrich and Tom Udall, both Democrats, in the middle of the pack when it came to popularity. Morning Consult’s poll found 54 percent of New Mexican voters approve of the way Tom Udall is doing his job, compared 27 percent who disapprove. For Heinrich, 46 percent approve while 29 percent disapprove. The rest said they didn’t know or had no opinion about either senator. The numbers are slightly down for both from April, where Udall had a 57 percent approval rating (and 23 percent who disapproved), while Heinrich had a 49 percent approval rating (to 24 percent who disapproved).

Full results of NM Political Report’s poll

We commissioned a poll from Public Policy Polling this week to answer some questions we—and apparently many others—had been wondering about. We wrote about each of the questions we commission from the company throughout the week; but there still is a lot of information to dig into, so we decided to release the full toplines and crosstabs as well for readers to dig through. Here are the previous posts on the poll, and the full results are available at the bottom of this post. Poll: NM voters support bringing back the death penalty
Poll: Clinton leads Trump in NM, Toulouse Oliver leads SOS race
Martinez approval rating hits new low
Poll: Here’s how voters want lawmakers to fix the budget deficit
FiveThirtyEight looks at NM Political Report’s poll

The pollster surveyed 80 percent of respondents by landline phone and 20 percent via internet panels, aimed a cell phone-only voters. Public Policy Polling conducted the poll based on questions submitted by NM Political Report.

FiveThirtyEight looks at NM Political Report’s poll

Thursday, FiveThirtyEight cited the most recent NM Political Report poll as an example of a rare poll being done in a relatively Democratic, or blue, state. Nate Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, wrote an analysis about the “blue state polling abyss.” He write polls in traditionally Democratic states, including the poll commissioned by NM Political Report for Public Policy Polling, give valuable data for the presidential election. Meanwhile, pollsters have been polling some traditionally Republican states, citing South Carolina and Missouri, writing, “Pollsters seem to think it’s more fun to poll” these states than traditional Democratic states. He does note “those states have been tight in recent surveys.”

These states, Silver says, are unlikely to be important in the grand scheme of things this November. In any election in which she wins South Carolina, for example, Clinton will almost certainly have already won North Carolina and probably also Georgia, meaning that she’ll be on track for 300-plus electoral votes with or without the Palmetto State.